2026 NFL Draft Race: Titans, Browns, Jets, Saints, and Raiders Battle for Top Pick

The 2026 NFL Draft Landscape

The race for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft is heating up as we reach the midpoint of the 2025 NFL season. Five teams hold at least a 5% chance to land the coveted selection according to the Football Power Index (FPI) projections: the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, and Las Vegas Raiders.

Tennessee Titans (1-8)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 36.6%
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 87.3%
The Titans currently sit in the best position among potential top-pick contenders. With the hardest schedule behind them, their remaining games are slightly easier, although they aren't favored in most. Key matchups against the Browns and Saints will significantly impact their draft standing.

Current Needs: Edge rusher tops the list. Despite having a solid defensive player in Jeffery Simmons, the Titans have struggled to generate pressure, ranking 22nd in total sacks this season.

Best Fit at No. 1: Miami's Rueben Bain Jr. could be a game-changer, bringing versatility and explosiveness to a struggling pass rush.

Cleveland Browns (2-7)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 26.9%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 82.6%

The Browns face an uphill battle, favored in only one of their remaining games against the Titans, and have a challenging path to the top pick. The relationship between their quarterback situation and draft strategy will be crucial.

Current Needs: Quarterback replacement is imperative. With inconsistent performance from their QBs, the Browns will likely look to draft a long-term solution if they retain a top pick.

Best Fit at No. 1: Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is gaining traction, possessing the poise and arm talent the franchise needs.

New York Jets (2-7)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 13.3%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 69.2%

The Jets are struggling and, without high draft capital, may need to pivot their strategy heavily toward acquiring a quarterback.

Current Needs: The Jets need a fresh start at the quarterback position, but they should also be targeting an upgrade at wide receiver.

Best Fit at No. 1: Mendoza stands out, but UCLA's Dante Moore could also fit as a highly mobile QB.

New Orleans Saints (2-8)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 9.7%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 63.3%

The Saints face off against a relatively manageable schedule that could allow them to climb out of contention. With evaluation of their young quarterback, Tyler Shough, they might have a dual strategy going forward.

Current Needs: Wide receiver is a high priority, especially with ongoing evaluation of Shough.

Best Fit at No. 1: If they choose to draft a defensive playmaker, then Ohio State's Arvell Reese offers immense upside on their defense.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)

FPI chance to earn No. 1 pick: 7.0%
FPI chance to earn top five pick: 54.1%

The Raiders are looking at potential changes across multiple positions, particularly the quarterback role, making next season's draft imperative.

Current Needs: The defensive line is insufficient and urgently needs an upgrade.

Best Fit at No. 1: Arvell Reese is an intriguing prospect, capable of reshaping the Raiders' defense alongside existing talent.

Conclusion

The 2026 NFL Draft race is more than just about landing the top pick; it's about reshaping franchises. Whether through rebuilding or strategic trades, the decisions made in the upcoming draft could alter the course for these five teams and their fanbases.