A New Alliance in Ethiopia: Old Fractures, New Threats

Formation of a Rebel Coalition

On September 20, 2026, the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival was officially announced. This new alliance brings together several previously opposing armed groups: the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), and four movements from the Somali, Afar, and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. What is notable about this formation is not just its ambition to depose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed but also how it reflects a recurring theme in Ethiopian history – that of coalitions born from necessity rather than consensus.

The alliance's emergence follows months of discreet coordination meetings involving Eritrean and Sudanese military personnel. It marks the latest chapter in Ethiopia's turbulent political and military landscape, where alliances have shifted as quickly as battlefield conditions. What sets this group apart is its stated goal: to establish an inclusive transition and remove Abiy Ahmed from power. However, the path forward remains fraught with internal contradictions and strategic vulnerabilities.

Historical Patterns of Convergence and Division

This isn't the first time Ethiopian armed groups have united against a common enemy. In November 2021, a similar coalition called the United Front of Ethiopian Federalist and Confederalist Forces emerged. It briefly advanced on Addis Ababa before internal fractures led to its collapse. That front included the TPLF and OLA, much like today's alliance – but it also featured more moderate voices that eventually walked away.

The lesson from 2021 is clear: even a shared enemy can be insufficient if there are unresolved issues around territorial claims, leadership dynamics, or ideological differences. Today's alliance faces similar challenges. For example, both the TPLF and the Amhara Fano claim control over western Tigray – a region known locally as Wolgait-Tsegede. Neither side appears willing to back down without guarantees, which raises questions about how these disputes will be resolved in any future political order.

"The same pattern could repeat itself. The lesson is not that 2026 will mirror 2021 exactly… but the precedent shows how quickly a common enemy can stop being enough when battlefield fortunes change."

Territorial Disputes and Strategic Miscalculations

One of the most critical issues facing this new alliance is the deep-rooted disagreement over territory. Tigray, once seen as a key strategic zone for Ethiopia's northern regions, has been at the heart of conflict since 2021. The Pretoria Agreement was meant to end hostilities, but it never fully took hold – especially in Tigray.

Today, TPLF forces have begun advancing into zones in northern Ethiopia, supported by the Afar National Unity Revolutionary Front (ANURF). ANURF is led by Ibrahim Osman Aliyu, better known as Haji Ibrahim, a respected figure who previously defected to Eritrea. He has publicly assured Afar civilians that their safety remains a priority and that services such as transport will not be disrupted.

However, the movement's next objective may involve attacking the highway linking Ethiopia to Djibouti – a vital logistical route for regional trade. If successful, this could further destabilize an already tense situation. Yet, such military maneuvers require more than just courage; they need coordination, reliable supply lines, and political backing.

Fragmentation Risks Within the Alliance

The alliance's strength lies in its diversity, but also in its instability. While TPLF, Fano, and ANURF form the core of the coalition, not all members speak with one voice. The OLA's participation has created divisions within the Oromo community, many of whom question whether this is truly a unified struggle or another power grab.

Moreover, some factions within the alliance are still in conflict with each other. Take the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), for instance. While an overseas faction supports the new alliance, leaders inside Ethiopia's Somali region have publicly denied any affiliation. This kind of internal discord undermines the legitimacy and cohesion of the entire group.

The same applies to other movements like Fano, which consists of multiple regional commands with divergent agendas. A single declaration signed by seven groups cannot override these fundamental differences in priorities or visions for Ethiopia's future. Without a clear framework for shared governance or power-sharing, this alliance risks becoming as unstable as past coalitions.

Military Challenges and Regional Implications

From a military standpoint, operating across multiple theaters presents a significant challenge for any coalition. The federal army is stretched thin, especially when fighting simultaneously in Oromia, Amhara, Tigray, and Somali regions. While the alliance may win individual battles, achieving strategic objectives – such as capturing Addis Ababa – remains highly unlikely without coordinated command structures.

Furthermore, the use of drones and air power by the Ethiopian government makes large-scale troop movements increasingly dangerous. Supply routes become vulnerable, and logistics are a constant concern. Even if the rebels manage to capture key towns, governing them proves difficult unless there's a clear plan for post-conflict administration.

Eritrea's Role: A Double-Edged Sword

Another factor complicating this picture is Eritrea. The government in Asmara has long denied providing support to Ethiopian rebel groups, yet intelligence reports and satellite imagery suggest otherwise. If Eritrean involvement continues, it could escalate the conflict beyond regional boundaries.

Ethiopia's relations with Eritrea have been deteriorating rapidly, particularly after Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea and unresolved issues from the Tigray war. If Asmara sees the current situation as an opportunity to challenge Addis Ababa's influence in the region, it could draw in other powers like the UAE or even Egypt.

This scenario would bring regional instability into the mix, turning what might have been a domestic conflict into a broader geopolitical crisis. Such a shift could significantly alter the dynamics of the entire region and impact global trade routes through the Horn of Africa.

Three Possible Futures for Ethiopia

There are three potential paths ahead:

1. Prolonged, Uneven Conflict: Local offensives continue with limited successes, leaving Addis Ababa relatively secure but weakened. This would likely result in a fragmented state where federal authority is eroded region by region.
2. Alliance Fragmentation: Disputes over territory or leadership could lead to key members exiting the alliance. One possibility is that TPLF withdraws if concessions are not made, similar to what happened in 2021.
3. Cascade of Defections and Coordinated Advances: Though less likely, a sudden wave of defections from the federal army or unified rebel campaigns could shift the balance of power. However, even in such cases, a takeover would be unconstitutional under African Union rules and might not bring peace – only further conflict.

The Human Cost

What matters most, though, is not whether the alliance survives but what happens to the people caught in the crossfire. The war has already displaced hundreds of thousands and left entire communities without basic services. The hope for peace is real, but the price paid by ordinary citizens – especially women and children – must not be overlooked.

In the end, the story of this new alliance mirrors Ethiopia's broader struggle to define itself as a nation-state. It highlights both the complexity of Ethiopian politics and the enduring desire for self-determination. Whether the alliance can overcome its internal weaknesses or whether it will simply add another chapter to a long list of failed attempts at peaceful reform remains to be seen.

"Ethiopia has repeatedly watched coalitions of convenience promise a new beginning through force. What matters now is not whether an armed alliance or a government survives, but what happens to the people who will have to live with what both do next."