Avoid These Fantasy Baseball Busts in 2026

Introduction: A Cautious Approach to Drafting

In the high-stakes game of fantasy baseball, every decision counts. As we gear up for the 2026 season, it's imperative to tread carefully, especially when considering players who come with warning labels. These are the players to think twice about, as highlighted by Tristan H. Cockcroft, ESPN's senior writer on fantasy baseball and football. The following analysis synthesizes his insights on underachievers to watch out for in the upcoming drafts.

1. Luis Arraez, 1B/DH, San Francisco Giants

Arraez's versatility might suggest him as a viable pick, but there's a significant concern. His defensive struggles could limit his at-bats, making him less reliable for fantasy scoring. The Giants are already juggling several 1B/DH types, and with poor fielding performance, Arraez might find himself facing pinch-hit situations more often than not.

“Defense doesn't count in fantasy, but it could matter a lot if Luis Arraez's shortcomings in the field limit his at-bats.”

2. Kyle Bradish, SP, Baltimore Orioles

Despite being a popular breakout candidate, Bradish's history suggests caution. Just 21 months out from Tommy John surgery, the investment of a high draft pick in him feels risky. Being drafted as the 18th starting pitcher in NFBC leagues might be overly generous considering his moderate experience, which raises flags about his workload management.

3. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins

Buxton's 2025 season might appear promising, coming off of playing 126 games and hitting 35 home runs, but the specter of injuries looms large. Relying on him in the upcoming drafts may prove troublesome, especially when safer alternatives are available.

4. Aroldis Chapman, RP, Boston Red Sox

Chapman's 2025 statistics were stellar, but those numbers raise questions about sustainability as he ages. Historically, very few relievers have matched his past performance post-37. A doubling of his previously low ERA is a possibility, suggesting a far lesser return on investment.

5. Rafael Devers, 1B/DH, San Francisco Giants

With Devers, the issue lies not in potential but in environment. Among hitters of his skill set, he operates in one of the least favorable parks, and the reality is reflected in his increasing strikeout rates.

6. Carlos Estevez, RP, Kansas City Royals

Estevez's significant drop in velocity during spring training raises alarms. He could be more of an investment risk than a reliable player for your roster.

7. Hunter Goodman, C/DH, Colorado Rockies

Goodman's power is appealing, yet his ability to maintain a high batting average, given his tendency to swing freely at non-strikes, is a question mark. Alternatives exist that could produce similar results for less.

8. Ryan Helsley, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Following a rocky transition post-trade, Helsley's declining velocity amplifies concerns. With a loaded division and hitter-friendly environment, he's not the best investment for saves.

9. Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets

Draft expectations might set too high for Lindor given his early season injury risk. After three years of impressive stats, it's crucial to consider trading for him at a more favorable time rather than investing heavily upfront.

10. Noelvi Marte, OF/3B, Cincinnati Reds

Marte, while holding promise, hasn't shown enough consistency. Drafting him as a starter might be premature given his injury-prone history and subpar hard-hit rate last season.

11. Josh Naylor, 1B/DH, Seattle Mariners

Though capable of surprising speed, Naylor's historical statistics tell a different story. A fallback to 25/13 may render him less appealing than other late-round options.

12. Freddy Peralta, SP, Mets

Consistency has been Peralta's calling card, yet his luck in 2025 was uncharacteristic. If history is any guide, he might not deliver as expected based on current trends.

13. Roki Sasaki, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Sasaki's first U.S. year was marred with underperformance. The pressure to deliver as he steps into his second year will be immense, and the signs suggest he's not yet ready for the draft spotlight.

14. Trevor Story, SS, Boston Red Sox

With a long-term injury history, Story's 2025 resurgence doesn't eliminate the risks he carries going into the draft. Teams investing heavily in him might face disappointment if he falls back into injury troubles.

15. Spencer Strider, SP, Atlanta Braves

Strider's decline in velocity signals potential trouble ahead. A once coveted top-30 SP, he might not deliver the return fantasy managers expect based on current trends.

Conclusion: Draft Wisely

With these potential busts highlighted, it's clear that knowledge and strategy are crucial for drafting success. Whether you follow Tristan Cockcroft's insights or utilize your own, ensuring a well-thought-out plan will be key to dominating your fantasy league in 2026.