China's Defence Chief Warns Against Coercion, Avoids Direct Condemnation of US and Japan

China's Diplomatic Pivot at the Xiangshan Forum

At the opening of the 13th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, Chinese Defence Minister Dong Jun issued a measured yet pointed warning against coercion and historical revisionism—while deliberately avoiding direct mention of the United States or Japan. His speech, delivered amid mounting regional tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, underscores China's strategic effort to frame its foreign policy through a lens of shared security governance rather than confrontation.

This approach aligns with Beijing's broader diplomatic strategy, one that seeks to promote a multipolar world order and amplify the Global South's voice in international military discourse. The forum, which brings together hundreds of military officers, diplomats, and scholars from dozens of countries, is carefully curated by China as an alternative to Singapore's Shangri-La Dialogue—a platform often dominated by Western narratives.

"We must bear the lessons of history in mind and remain highly vigilant against all latent manifestations of hegemony, militarism and historical revisionism," Dong stated. "By rallying broad-based forces of justice, we must suppress the resurgence of historical dregs."

The timing of this speech is particularly significant. It comes just a week before President Xi Jinping's expected trip to Washington, where he will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump—a high-stakes encounter that could shape U.S.-China relations for years to come.

A Calculated Avoidance of Confrontation

Dong's decision not to name the United States or Japan directly may be a deliberate move to manage the risk of escalating tensions at a time when Beijing is seeking to balance its strategic interests with those of its neighbors. While his remarks were broad enough to include indirect criticism of regional powers, they did not escalate into direct accusations that might provoke retaliation.

This restraint is particularly notable in light of Japan's recent military posture. In 2025, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could prompt a Japanese military response—a comment that Beijing interpreted as a return to the aggressive past. China has since issued repeated warnings, calling for Tokyo to avoid actions that could destabilize regional dynamics.

As one analyst pointed out, Japan's growing involvement in South China Sea affairs may be perceived as more damaging in the long run than U.S. influence. The sentiment was echoed by Wu Shicun, chairman of the Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, who warned that Tokyo's fixation on maritime control could undermine dispute resolution efforts and hinder cooperation.

Regional Dynamics and Military Diplomacy

The Xiangshan Forum serves as a crucial platform for China's military diplomacy, one that allows Beijing to project soft power without relying solely on hard-line tactics. By inviting delegations from countries like North Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, and others, China is attempting to build a coalition of support around its vision of global governance.

In contrast, Western nations have largely sent lower-level representatives. The U.S. contingent was led by senior Pentagon official Cynthia Carras, signaling a cautious but engaged approach to China's strategic messaging. Meanwhile, regional actors like Vietnam and Malaysia have dispatched top military leadership—reflecting their desire to navigate the shifting power dynamics without aligning too closely with either superpower.

Even so, the event reveals a broader trend: the increasing influence of non-Western states in shaping international military norms. As China continues to build its own narrative around security cooperation and regional stability, it risks becoming an alternative center of gravity for global military diplomacy—a shift that could redefine how international relations are conducted.

Implications for U.S.-China Relations

Dong's speech offers a glimpse into China's preferred framework for managing global tensions. Rather than engaging in open confrontation, Beijing favors multilateralism and shared responsibility. This diplomatic posture reflects a deeper understanding of the economic and military interdependencies that make direct conflict costly and counterproductive.

However, this strategy also raises questions about how sustainable such an approach will be under increasing pressure from regional disputes and evolving alliances. As the U.S. reasserts its presence in Asia, and China doubles down on its territorial claims, the balance between diplomacy and deterrence becomes ever more delicate.

What's clear is that Beijing sees forums like Xiangshan as critical tools for maintaining control over the narrative around regional security—especially as it prepares for high-level talks with Washington. While the immediate threat of escalation may be muted, the underlying tensions remain high, and the stakes continue to rise.

Looking Ahead

As China's influence expands across Asia, its approach to military diplomacy is likely to become even more central to global security architecture. Dong Jun's speech at the Xiangshan Forum demonstrates a calculated blend of caution and assertiveness—one that seeks to advance national interests while minimizing the risk of direct confrontation.

The key will be how Beijing navigates the complex web of alliances, rivalries, and strategic interests in the region. Will it succeed in building consensus through dialogue, or will friction continue to mount as the geopolitical stakes grow?