Dominate Your Survivor Pool: Picks for Week 6 Action

Understanding the ESPN Eliminator Challenge

The ESPN Eliminator Challenge is one of the most exhilarating games you can participate in this NFL season. The goal is straightforward: select one team each week, and if they emerge victorious (or tie), you advance. A loss means you're out. But there's a significant twist—you can't reuse any team!

If you've reached this point, give yourself a well-deserved pat on the back. You've survived some unpredictable weeks, especially the wild unpredictability of Week 5, which saw three of the five largest favorites fall flat.

Chaos in Week 5

Week 5 embodied the unpredictability that the Eliminator Challenge is known for. An astounding three favorites—each by a margin of at least 7 points—lost. This represented the first time since 2015 that such chaos unfolded. Take, for instance, the Arizona Cardinals, who were the most popular pick, only to squander a 15-point lead in the dying moments of the game. I can't help but cringe when recalling Emari Demercado's premature celebration that eventually led to a game-threatening fumble.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Now, with Week 6 upon us, the Packers are the clear standout option against the Cincinnati Bengals. With the Packers positioned as the second-biggest favorites of the entire season, there's substantial allure to selecting them. However, just to keep it interesting, it's crucial to decide whether it's worth holding off on picking them for a future confrontation.

Top Survivor Picks

1. Green Bay Packers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

According to ESPN Analytics, this matchup is touted as the second-most lopsided of the entire season. With an impressive 91% chance of victory based on Mike Clay's model, the Packers sit significantly above their future matchups against the Panthers and Giants. Their upcoming home advantage against one of the weaker teams makes this selection a no-brainer. Expect the Packers to garner considerable attention in high-stakes contests since only 21% of participants had selected them as of Tuesday.

• Mike Clay's chance to win: 91%
• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 81%
• Current betting line: Packers -14.5
• Eliminator Challenge selection rate: 21%

2. Denver Broncos (vs. New York Jets in London)

Continuing our list is the Denver Broncos, who are also favored significantly against the Jets—currently the only winless team in the NFL. A crucial part of the decision here focuses on the timing; do you want this week's selection or save them for a future matchup? The Broncos will be facing the Giants shortly after, and they have more favorable matchups down the road.

• Mike Clay's chance to win: 86%
• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 71%
• Current betting line: Broncos -7.5
• Eliminator Challenge selection rate: 17%

3. Philadelphia Eagles (at New York Giants)

Next, we have the Philadelphia Eagles. They face the Giants, which statistically is one of their easiest matchups this season. However, after contending with a demanding strength of schedule, their selection rates have been surprisingly low. If you've utilized the Colts during your picks, this could be an excellent moment to capitalize on the Eagles' future value as well.

• Mike Clay's chance to win: 78%
• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 75%
• Current betting line: Eagles -6.5
• Eliminator Challenge selection rate: 25%

4. Indianapolis Colts (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

The Colts are another solid option, ranked high among favorites, especially with the Cardinals coming to visit. If you haven't picked the Eagles yet, saving the Colts might not be a bad idea. Their exceptional offensive and defensive EPA per play underscore their impressive 4-1 record. They're more likely to have lower selection rates, making this an appealing choice.

• Mike Clay's chance to win: 78%
• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 65%
• Current betting line: Colts -6.5
• Eliminator Challenge selection rate: 2%

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Despite models showing less confidence in the Steelers, historical trends cannot be overlooked. They've maintained a remarkable 21-game home-winning streak over the Browns—an impressive feat in regard to NFL history. While they don't have long-term favorable matchups, they're worth considering for their current position.

• Mike Clay's chance to win: 72%
• ESPN Analytics chance to win: 64%
• Current betting line: Steelers -5.5
• Eliminator Challenge selection rate: 11%

Projected Path

• Week 7: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Raiders
• Week 8: Indianapolis Colts vs. Titans
• Week 9: Los Angeles Rams vs. Saints
• Week 10: Chicago Bears vs. Giants
• Week 11: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Bengals
• Week 12: Baltimore Ravens vs. Jets
• Week 13: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Bears
• Week 14: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Saints
• Week 15: San Francisco 49ers vs. Titans
• Week 16: Buffalo Bills at Browns
• Week 17: New England Patriots at Jets
• Week 18: Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Titans