Europe's Real Threat Isn't Trump—It's What Comes After

Europe's Unlikely Pivot

When I addressed over 100 European ambassadors recently, my message was clear: we must stop focusing solely on Trump and his America. While transatlantic tensions persist, they are, for now, manageable. The real existential threat to Europe's stability comes not from Washington, but from Moscow and Beijing. This is a seismic shift in how we assess the continent's external challenges.

"Europe's relationship with Trump's America remains difficult. The US president has weakened confidence in NATO, raised new transatlantic trade tensions and introduced uncertainty into everything from US support for Ukraine to his territorial designs on Greenland."

The US is becoming more predictable, if not necessarily more reliable. Despite the volatility of a second Trump administration, Washington's core interests—maintaining NATO cohesion, supporting Ukraine, and safeguarding American markets—have proven resilient in the face of policy oscillations.

Putin's Economic Crisis and Military Escalation

Russia's situation is entirely different. The Kremlin is hemorrhaging resources while facing mounting pressure from sanctions and a war it can no longer afford to win. This paradox—its weakening economy driving more aggressive military posturing—is now the defining characteristic of Russian strategy.

As the Moscow Times recently reported, the Kremlin is struggling to fund its war in Ukraine. Budget assumptions have been overtaken by reality: rising military spending, increased recruitment costs, and compensation for casualties are draining state coffers. Economic contraction looms, and public spending on essential services is being slashed to preserve the war machine.

Yet, this economic vulnerability is paradoxically pushing Putin toward more desperate measures. The strategy is clear: accelerate military actions in Ukraine and against NATO to shift attention away from internal weaknesses and force concessions from Western allies.

China's Systemic Challenge

Meanwhile, China presents a more complex and enduring threat. The EU's trade policies, economic security agenda, and industrial strategy have long been criticized for being too lenient toward Beijing. But now, there is growing consensus that the status quo no longer works.

The European Union is implementing new tools to counter China's subsidies, overcapacity, and export-led growth model. Investment controls, procurement restrictions, and targeted trade defense mechanisms are being developed—many of which are explicitly directed at Chinese goods and services.

This approach may not be sustainable in the long term. As the EU's trade chief has noted, the challenge is not whether to defend Europe, but how far to go. China, in turn, sees these measures as a threat to its economic growth model—a direct challenge to its sovereignty and development strategy.

The French Contingency: A Constitutional Crisis in the Making

And then there is France. The country's presidential election next year could become the most consequential event for Europe since the end of the Cold War. Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader of Rassemblement National, is currently polling between 35% and 38%. Her potential victory would shake Europe to its core.

If France's fragmented centre fails to unite behind a single candidate, Le Pen could face off against the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the runoff—and likely win. Her presidency would represent a fundamental shift in European governance, threatening everything from Ukraine support and EU fiscal rules to Schengen and the single market.

Le Pen's policies are designed to dismantle European institutions and realign France with Moscow and Beijing. She has threatened to withhold France's contribution to the EU budget—something that would plunge the union into a constitutional and financial crisis unprecedented in modern history.

"France's presidential election next year could prove more consequential for Europe than any decision taken in Washington, Moscow or Beijing."

Europe at a Crossroads

The external challenges posed by Russia and China are significant. But they are not insurmountable. What is truly unpredictable—and terrifying—is the political direction of Europe itself. If the EU cannot maintain unity in the face of global disruption, it will fail even more dramatically than its neighbors.

Europe's greatest vulnerability lies not in its geopolitical enemies but in its own internal fractures. The question isn't whether we can survive Trump or Putin or Xi Jinping. The question is whether Europe will remain strong enough to hold itself together when the world looks elsewhere.

That's what makes this moment so urgent. That's why we must act now—not just on policy, but on principle.