Food Security at Risk: The Hidden Impact of the Iran War on Asia's Agriculture

Understanding the Crisis

The agricultural landscape of Asia is at a critical juncture as farmers prepare for the all-important planting season. However, they are confronted with rising fertilizer costs and disrupted supply chains triggered by the Iran conflict. Suchart Piamsomboon, a rice farmer from Thailand, poignantly illustrates this crisis: "Farming only leads to financial losses. I'd rather work as a day laborer. Expenses don't go down, but income keeps falling." This sentiment is echoed across various farming communities in Southeast Asia.

Closed Gates and Rising Prices

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway responsible for about a third of the world's fertilizer trade, remains shut due to the ongoing conflict. This closure has not only impacted oil prices but has had a ripple effect on fertilizer availability. The price of urea, the most common nitrogen fertilizer, surged by 40% shortly after the commencement of hostilities.

"There's no fertilizer! I might not plant at all this season," lamented Suchart Piamsomboon.

As the crisis unfolds, China, a major player in the global fertilizer market, has implemented its own export bans under its national food security law, further complicating the situation. Reports indicate that over half of China's fertilizer exports are now restricted, leaving other countries, particularly those in Southeast Asia, in a precarious position.

Regional Dependencies

Many Southeast Asian nations, including Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, find themselves in dire straits due to their heavy reliance on imported fertilizers. Vietnam, a leading rice exporter, sources more than half of its fertilizer needs from China. Similarly, the Philippines depends on China for a staggering 75% of its fertilizer supply, making them extremely vulnerable to disruptions in the supply chain.

• **Thailand:** About 20% of its fertilizer imports come from China, alongside significant contributions from the Gulf region.
• **Vietnam:** In the first quarter of 2026, China accounted for more than 480,000 tonnes, emphasizing the scale of dependence.
• **Philippines:** A staggering 80% of its rice imports are sourced from Vietnam, linking the health of its agricultural sector directly to China's fertilizer exports.

This interconnected web of dependencies means that a disruption in one area leads to wide-ranging consequences across the entire region. In the event of inadequate fertilizer supplies, farmers may opt out of planting altogether—a chilling prospect for food security not just in Southeast Asia but potentially around the globe.

The Long-Term Effects

The implications of these supply disruptions may not be felt immediately, as countries could have enough fertilizer for this planting season. However, as experts warn, if the current crisis continues, we can expect a significant impact on yield by year-end, potentially pushing millions further into hunger. The UN World Food Programme estimates that 45 million people could be added to the ranks of those facing acute hunger because of the combined fallout from this conflict.

Conclusion: The Need for a Sustainable Path

In reflecting on the landscape of Asia's agricultural future, it becomes increasingly clear that resolving the immediate issues surrounding fertilizer supply and prices must be prioritized. Government intervention, farmer support, and international cooperation will be fundamental in navigating these troubled waters. We must realize that markets affect people as much as profits—and that true sustainability means planning not just for this season, but for many to come.

"The hardship is impossible to put into words," said Bangkok farmer Pratheuang Piamsomboon, highlighting the human cost behind these economic calculations.

As we move forward, it is essential to foster resilience within the agricultural sector, ensuring that farmer voices are heard—because a crisis impacting the world's rice bowl is a crisis that impacts us all.