Higher Tariffs, Fewer Discounts: What Black Friday 2025 Could Look Like

The Black Friday Conundrum

As we approach the holiday shopping season, businesses find themselves in a precarious position. A mix of rising costs due to U.S. tariffs and a cautious consumer base raises questions about the discounts traditionally associated with Black Friday.

Retailers have to balance maintaining profit margins while meeting customer expectations for savings. In New York City, Lisa Cheng Smith, founder of Yun Hai Taiwanese Pantry, has experienced a staggering increase in import costs this year—between 20% and 50%—primarily from tariffs impacting goods from Taiwan and other Asian countries. Past years saw her offering 15% discounts, but uncertainty looms this year—"Do we offer less of a discount to preserve our margins, or maintain our promotional strategies?" she reflects.

A Strained Retail Landscape

Retailers' dilemma is further complicated by economic pressures on consumers. Many families are tightening their purse strings amid inflation and economic uncertainty, leading to a lower-than-usual enthusiasm for holiday shopping. Sonia Lapinsky, a retail analyst from AlixPartners, indicates that consumers are focusing their spending on essential needs rather than holiday extravagances.

"It's the only way retailers will get them in the door, because they can't stomach this," Lapinsky asserts.

Shifting Discount Strategies

Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData, suggests this year's promotions will be more selective. Retailers might discount fewer items, and the discounts offered are likely to be less generous.

• Potential Strategies:
  • Fewer items on sale
  • Reduced discount percentages
  • Selective promotions based on inventory

Collective Concerns from Small Businesses

Smaller enterprises often rely on Q4 sales to meet annual revenue targets. For many, October through December represents their most lucrative period. This fragility underscores the significance of each decision made in the run-up to Black Friday. Dan Peskorse of Upstream Brands illustrates this poignantly, citing the necessity of scrapping discounts entirely this year due to prohibitive costs imposed by tariffs.

The average U.S. tariff rate has surged significantly, reaching around 16.6% in 2025, demonstrating increased burdens on businesses that import goods. Consequently, many retailers will likely pass some of those costs on to consumers, shaping a more challenging buying environment this holiday season.

A Strange Season Ahead

With all these moving parts, analysts predict a Black Friday that will feel different. Socioeconomic factors are palpably influencing consumer behavior, and as a result, the holiday season may not bring the expected retail bonanza.

"If retailers get it wrong, they're risking the biggest selling season they have,” warns Lapinsky.

This undercurrent of uncertainty is not just about inadequate discounts; it indicates deeper shifts in the retail landscape, where strategies must be recalibrated to account for external pressures including economic trends and tariff-driven cost changes.

What Lies Ahead

As we consider the future, it's essential for consumers and retailers alike to adapt to this changing landscape. The notion of Black Friday as a day of profound deals may be overshadowed by more conservative pricing models, reflecting broader economic realities.

In conclusion, while we will undoubtedly see discounts this Black Friday, they may be more subdued than in years past—an indicator of how interconnected global trade, local business strategies, and consumer spending have become.