Lithuania Responds Firmly to Airspace Incursions: A National Emergency Declared

Understanding Lithuania's National Emergency

Lithuania's government declared a nationwide emergency on December 9, 2025, following months of aerial disruptions caused by suspicious balloons entering its airspace from Belarus. This measure highlights not just a response to immediate aerial incursions, but signifies Lithuania's strategic stance within NATO and broader European security policy.

The Incident That Sparked Concern

Since the beginning of this year, over 599 weather balloons have reportedly floated into Lithuania, allegedly used by Belarus to smuggle cigarettes and disrupt civil operations. The situation escalated recently as 197 drones were also involved in this low-level incursion warfare. These incidents have led to significant impacts, including delays, diversions, and cancellations of more than 350 flights, with financial losses exceeding 750,000 euros.

The Nature of Hybrid Warfare

This ongoing situation with the balloons can be classified under the umbrella of hybrid warfare, a term that encompasses a range of tactics designed to destabilize an opponent without the formal declaration of war. Such tactics may include cyberattacks, psychological operations, and other forms of covert disruptions. As Charlie Edwards, a hybrid warfare expert, suggests, the aim of these balloons is not just smuggling but to create “visible uncertainty” in the affected area, inducing chaos and public panic.

“That begins to cause public panic,” Edwards stated, underscoring the long-term psychological impact of these low-level incursions.

Government's Response

In response, Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene emphasized the necessity of strict measures to counter Belarus's ongoing hybrid attacks. She stated, “In countering Belarus's hybrid attack, we must take the strictest measures and protect the areas most affected by this attack.” This assertion underlines the importance of unified institutional responses to safeguard national security and maintain public order.

Impacts on Civilians and Airport Operations

The disruptions have prompted the closure of the Vilnius airport for over 60 hours, dramatically affecting approximately 51,000 passengers. While the government assures that the heightened alert will not inconvenience residents, the reality remains that many are feeling the effects of this national crisis.

The International Dimension

Both NATO and EU officials are dealing with the broader implications of these hybrid threats. Since 2022, as the Russia-Ukraine war escalated, EU member states faced increased hybrid warfare from both Russia and its allies. The response requires a coordinated effort on intelligence-sharing, joint investigations, and a renewed focus on protecting civilian infrastructure.

Future Considerations: How Should Europe Respond?

In light of this ongoing ordeal, many experts advocate for a reassessment of the EU's response mechanisms against hybrid attacks. Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, has indicated that additional sanctions against Belarus are in the works. However, some experts, like Edwards, suggest that Europe should mirror its response to terrorism threats over the past two decades—focusing on proactive measures and enhanced intelligence-sharing.

Conclusion

The balloon incursions from Belarus not only represent a tactical nuisance but also a symptomatic reflection of larger geopolitical friction within Europe. As Lithuania grapples with the immediate repercussions of its national emergency declaration, the long-term implications—both for Lithuanian sovereignty and NATO's collective security—remain to be seen. Engagement in hybrid warfare may redefine modern conflicts, creating new pathways for tension that demand agile responses and comprehensive strategies from European leaders.