Navigating the Venezuelan Labyrinth: Why Governance is the Real Challenge Ahead

Introduction

The recent capture of Nicolás Maduro has been met with celebration; however, the narrative is shifting. As I reflect on the historical aspects of governance, it becomes increasingly clear: the real test for the U.S. is not just toppling dictators, but navigating the intricate web of power that follows.

The Illusion of Control

President Trump's assertion that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela conjures images of a swift resolution. But let's step back — what does governing Venezuela even mean? The vice-presidential claim of Delcy Rodríguez as interim president is one glaring reminder that authority cannot be declared by fiat.

"We will run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition" - President Trump

When we impose governance without a viable local leadership structure, we risk inciting more chaos. The chaotic legacy crafted during the Iraq invasion is a cautionary tale; we've seen first-hand how improvisation leads to instability.

Lessons from Iraq: An Ominous Precedent

During my tenure as a military analyst before the Iraq invasion, I participated in discussions about establishing governance post-conflict. There were gaps in the plans for post-war governance, revealing a reluctance to engage deeply enough with local dynamics. We asked, “Who secures ministries? How will basic services be restored?” The answers were strategic but lacked concrete application—much like the current plans for Venezuela.

Counterproductive Comparisons: Venezuela vs. Panama

Comparisons have arisen, likening Venezuela's current situation to that of Panama in 1989, where U.S. intervention led to a swift installation of a new regime. However, Panama was a uniquely contained conflict with a clear successor government in place. Venezuela, in contrast, is a country of complexity with deep-rooted socio-political and economic issues that defy a one-size-fits-all solution.

The Need for Clarity: Questions That Demand Answers

As we push forward, transparency and strategic clarity become paramount. Questions surrounding who is authorized to govern, how security will be maintained, and what economic plans prioritize Venezuelans must be addressed promptly. Accountability is not optional when our actions are liable to redefine an entire nation.

Indirect Control: The Washington Approach

Interestingly, it seems the strategy involves indirect control, potentially using economic levers over direct governance. Understanding oil revenues as a primary power base in Venezuela allows the U.S. to exert influence without an occupying force. Yet I ask, is this a sustainable model? If we choose this path, it's imperative we acknowledge the powerful networks operating under Maduro's regime that are poised to resist.

Conclusion: Preventing History's Repetition

The path forward for Venezuela must not resemble a mirrored reflection of Iraq's tumultuous aftermath. As I consider the stakes, it is essential that our approach includes building legitimate Venezuelan leadership instead of merely establishing American authority. With disciplined handling, Venezuela can serve as a model of recovery — but improvisation is a dangerous game that the U.S. should not attempt to play again.