NFL Week 11: My Top Picks Against the Spread

Week 11 Preview: Betting Landscape

The NFL is heating up as we head into Week 11, and I couldn't be more thrilled. With thrilling matchups ahead, especially the Jets vs. Patriots on Thursday night, it's time to strategize and place our bets wisely.

This week is pivotal for playoff positioning and betting implications alike. With my expertise, I'm here to illuminate the trenches of each contest, dissecting the strategies at play.

Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 80-70

• Week 1: 7-9
• Week 2: 9-7
• Week 3: 9-7
• Week 4: 6-10
• Week 5: 8-6
• Week 6: 10-5
• Week 7: 11-4
• Week 8: 3-11 🤡🤡🤡
• Week 9: 9-5
• Week 10: 8-6

All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET

Jets at Patriots (-12.5) -- Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Pick: Patriots -12.5

The Patriots are steaming ahead with an 8-2 record and are riding a seven-game win streak. Their latest victory against the Buccaneers showed their resilience, overcoming offensive struggles to scavenge a much-needed victory on the road.

The Jets boast a 2-7 record and while they had their moment in the sun with a win against the Browns, their offense is failing to ignite—recently recording a mere 54 passing yards. With their star receiver Garrett Wilson out, I have doubts they can keep this game competitive.

Commanders at Dolphins (-2.5) -- Sun., 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)

Pick: Dolphins -2.5

The Dolphins are also reeling, sitting at 3-7 after a shaky start. The Commanders, having dropped to a 3-7 record, are struggling with a weak defense that's consistently allowing over 380 yards. Miami needs this game to turn their fortunes around, making them a solid pick.

Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Buccaneers +5.5

Despite the Bills being at 6-3, they're getting a little too much respect from the betting markets. Their tendency to struggle against defenses, particularly on the ground, plays to Tampa Bay's advantage, making this a pivotal ATS pick.

Texans (-6.5) at Titans -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Texans -6.5

The Titans are floundering with one of the worst offenses in the league, leaving their chance of containing Houston's formidable defense bleak. Following a rocky start, the Texans have found their groove and should secure a convincing win.

Packers (-7) at Giants -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Giants +7

The Packers have had a rollercoaster of a season so far. With emerging questions around their offense, I see the Giants as a viable underdog here, showcasing a potential to outperform expectations.

Bengals at Steelers (-5.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Bengals +5.5

While the Bengals seem to be struggling defensively, I don't trust the Steelers to outscore them by enough to cover. A follow-up performance from Joe Flacco can turn this game around.

Chargers (-3) at Jaguars -- Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chargers -3

After starting rough, the Chargers' recent form has been impressive, and I feel confident they can close this out against a Jacksonville team that seems to be losing steam.

Panthers at Falcons (-3.5) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Panthers +3.5

Despite Carolina's recent stumble, feel their defense can keep them competitive. With Atlanta in a slump, this should be a hard-fought contest.

Bears at Vikings (-3) -- Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Bears +3

With a stellar offense that's finding its rhythm, I'm backing the Bears to at least cover the spread against a struggling Vikings team.

Seahawks at Rams (-3) -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Seahawks +3

Both teams are phenomenal; however, the Seahawks continue to dominate proceedings, and I'm taking them to cover this spread.

49ers (-3) at Cardinals -- Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Cardinals +3

The Niners are dealing with setbacks, and the Cardinals can capitalize—especially with Brissett's steady play.

Ravens (-7.5) at Browns -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Ravens -7.5

Even as they face Cleveland, the Ravens are in a strong position to take control of this game, thanks to their explosive offense.

Chiefs (-3.5) at Broncos -- Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chiefs -3.5

Denver's potent defense won't be enough to stop the Chiefs, and I expect Mahomes to light up the scoreboard.

Lions at Eagles (-2.5) -- Sun., 8:15 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)

Pick: Lions +2.5

Despite the Eagles' winning streak, I see the Lions as a strong contender. Their offensive balance is crucial this week.

Cowboys (-3.5) at Raiders -- Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Pick: Cowboys -3.5

Despite prior struggles, I believe the Cowboys can exploit the Raiders' weaknesses to secure this win.

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