The Preseason Pulse Check
The NHL preseason is coming to a close, and with the regular season tipping off on October 7, this is the perfect moment for football enthusiasts to recalibrate their expectations. Following a turbulent 2023-24 season, players are under heightened scrutiny, especially those who found themselves in the spotlight last year.
Understanding Regression
In the realm of sports, regression isn't just a statistical term; it's often a harsh reality for players riding a statistical high. For this upcoming season, we spotlight individuals whose prolific scoring in the last year may not be mirrored in the 2025-26 campaign. These athletes are likely to see their production decline by 10% or more, driven by a combination of unsustainable shooting percentages, changing team dynamics, and increased competition.
"It's natural to see fluctuations in performance, but understanding the cause of these shifts is crucial for both players and analysts alike." - A familiar sports adage that rings true this season.
Top Regression Candidates
Morgan Geekie
LW, Boston Bruins
Geekie made headlines last season with 33 goals, nearly doubling his career high. This spike can largely be attributed to an inflated shooting percentage of 22%, significantly higher than his historical average of 13%. If he stays on Boston's top line, a more realistic projection would land between 22 and 26 goals, rather than replicating last season's success.
Mark Scheifele
Coming off an impressive campaign with 39 goals, Scheifele's production is likely to decline due to a combination of a favorable shooting percentage and newfound challenges—especially without the same power-play environment without teammate Nikolaj Ehlers.
Aliaksei Protas
Protas exploded last season, registering 30 goals following a career high of just 6. This was fuelled by a spike in shooting percentage to 21.1%, which is unsustainable. He faces a tougher landscape this season; if he reverts to a normal shooting percentage, his goal numbers could significantly dip.
Mark Stone
A perennial two-way threat, Stone is up against his health history this season. Expected to see less ice time and power-play opportunities, it's hard to envision his repeat of last season's 67-point contribution.
Matt Duchene
C, Dallas Stars
Projected to be a third-line center, Duchene's offensive output is likely limited after a point-per-game season. Coupled with age-related decline and reduced ice time, he might not match his previous production levels.
Anticipating the Upcoming Challenges
As we advance toward the new season, these regression candidates are now under a microscope. The fluctuations in performance levels serve as a reminder of the unpredictable nature of sports. Fans will be watching closely to see if their beloved players can break the odds, or if those lofty numbers were simply a flash in the pan.
"In sports, there's always a story beneath the stats. The heart of the game lies not just in what happens but in the why and how of the play." - An essence of sports journalism that never gets old.
Final Thoughts
In this sport, the margin for error is razor-thin. Players identified as regression candidates are often subjected to the pressures of their roles, team dynamics, and opponent analysis. As fans gear up for the thrill of the season ahead, their success or struggles will provide plenty of narratives. Will Morgan Geekie maintain his newfound status among elite scorers? Can Mark Scheifele find a way to thrive despite the challenges? The answers will unfold as the season progresses.
Source reference: https://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/46452690/nhl-2025-26-players-regression-candidates-projections-stats
