Oscar Predictions: Who Will Shine in 2026?

The Oscar Race: A Prelude to the Glamour

It's that time of year again—the buzz in the air is palpable, and film lovers everywhere are sharpening their pencils (or rather, tapping into their smartphones) to make predictions about the upcoming Oscars. On January 22nd, the nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be unveiled. As a devoted follower of the awards, I find this period exhilarating, filled with the kind of anticipation that transforms casual moviegoers into passionate critics.

What I crave—what I yearn for—is chaos. Bring on the snubs! Give me the surprise nominations that leave us questioning reality. If I manage to perfectly predict the nominees, I'd argue that the Academy has utterly failed us. Because let's be honest, it's not about the winners, it's about the drama. Join me on the next episode of the Parting Shot Podcast, where my caffeinated colleagues and I will break down every category in excruciating detail, analyzing who missed the cut and who will steal the spotlight. Make sure to subscribe to the For the Culture newsletter to stay updated throughout this rollercoaster awards season.

Best Picture: The Heavyweights and the Dark Horses

Let's dive straight into my predictions for Best Picture. Here's who I think will snag that coveted nomination call:

• Bugonia
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• It Was Just an Accident
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• The Secret Agent
• Train Dreams

HOT TAKE: There's a possibility that films like F1 or the captivating Korean entry No Other Choice might sneak into the Best Picture race. However, I can't fathom Wicked: For Good making the cut—just not happening.

Best Director: A Battle of Visionaries

Now, let's shift gears to the men and women behind the camera. My picks in the Best Director category include:

• Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
• Ryan Coogler for Sinners
• Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein
• Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value
• Chloé Zhao for Hamnet

HOT TAKE: It's likely that Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident or Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme could edge out Trier or del Toro, but I'm not holding my breath.

Best Actor: A Competitive Field

What about the leading men? This year, I'm betting on:

• Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon
• Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another
• Michael B. Jordan in Sinners
• Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme
• Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent

HOT TAKE: Anticipate some eyebrow-raising moments, especially if Jesse Plemons gets a nod for Bugonia.

Best Actress: Breaking Boundaries

The competition is just as fierce among the ladies. Here's my forecast:

• Chase Infinti in One Battle After Another
• Emma Stone in Bugonia
• Jessie Buckley in Hamnet
• Renate Reinsve in Sentimental Value
• Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

HOT TAKE: I wouldn't be upset if Kate Hudson scores a nomination for Song Sung Blue. Yes, *that* Kate Hudson!

Best Supporting Actor and Actress: The Unsung Heroes

Finally, we can't overlook the supporting categories where performances often steal the show. Here are my anticipations:

Best Supporting Actor

• Benicio del Toro in One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi in Frankenstein
• Paul Mescal in Hamnet
• Sean Penn in One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård in Sentimental Value

HOT TAKE: I'm not anticipating many shocks here, but keep an eye out for Adam Sandler potentially swooping in for Jay Kelly.

Best Supporting Actress

• Amy Madigan in Weapons
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas in Sentimental Value
• Odessa A'zion in Marty Supreme
• Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another
• Wunmi Mosaku in Sinners

HOT TAKE: The biggest buzz will be whether Ariana Grande gets a nod for her role in Wicked: For Good—yes, I'm ready for that shock to the system! And honestly, just imagining a Glenn Close nomination for Wake Up Dead Man blows my mind.

The Final Countdown

So where am I bound to be wrong? Feel free to let me know! And remember, you can catch my live reactions and predictions on the Parting Shot Podcast. It's going to be a thrilling ride, folks, and I can't wait for all the unexpected twists this awards season will bring!