Paxton's Gen Z Outreach Falters as Talarico Gains Ground

Background and Polling Context

As Texas prepares for a pivotal Senate election, the political landscape has shifted dramatically in recent weeks. The latest polling from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University reveals a notable shift in how young voters are viewing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. In just seven weeks, Democratic state Representative James Talarico has gained 17 points with voters under the age of 35, moving from a 29-point deficit to a 58-point lead.

"In the center's late July poll, Talarico led that group 59 percent to 29 percent," I noted in my review of the data. "That puts Talarico up 17 points with young voters in seven weeks while Paxton fell 11. His deficit with the group nearly doubled, from 30 points to 58."

This surge comes despite Paxton's direct outreach efforts targeting Gen Z. His campaign launched a program in August aimed at engaging college students, establishing 11 Students for Paxton chapters across Texas institutions. The campaign's message emphasized student involvement in the political process, including voter registration drives and volunteering opportunities.

Demographic Shifts

The new poll surveyed 1,800 likely voters between September 15 and 19, yielding a margin of error of plus or minus 2.31 percentage points. Among the sample, younger demographics showed a marked preference for Talarico over Paxton, though this segment represented only 14 percent of respondents in the September poll, down from 18 percent in July.

Interestingly, among voters aged 18 to 34, Talarico leads Governor Greg Abbott 71 percent to 21 percent, and Democratic state Representative Vikki Goodwin leads Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick 65 percent to 18 percent. These trends suggest a broader movement within Texas's political environment.

Political Strategy and Messaging

The shift has been attributed partly to Talarico's evolving messaging. In 2021, he was vocal in support of transgender student athletes, but more recently has adopted a more conservative stance on the issue. On Fox News this month, Talarico stated: "I oppose trans athletes playing in girls' sports if it endangers safety or fairness."

This strategic pivot may be resonating with some conservative voters, especially those within the moderate wing of the Republican Party. According to our analysis, 27 percent of Republicans who identify most with the party's moderate wing plan to vote for Talarico. That represents a significant shift from earlier polling.

Political strategist Mike Madrid, who has worked closely with Talarico, explained: "I think it's one of the reasons he's been launched to a national profile," Madrid said. "He's on these platforms. He's very popular and well received by the hosts and presumably the audience."

Broader Implications

The changing demographics aren't isolated to the Senate race. Across various statewide races, younger voters are showing stronger preferences for Democratic candidates. For instance, in gubernatorial races, Talarico's support among young voters significantly outpaces Paxton's.

This development reflects a broader pattern observed across Texas politics. Despite historical Republican dominance, recent polls and voter trends indicate that the state may be entering a more competitive political era, especially among younger demographics.

Key Factors in Talarico's Rise

• Podcast Presence: Talarico has been active on podcasts and online shows popular with young men, helping to build a national profile.
• Strategic Messaging: His evolving stance on issues like transgender athletes has helped him appeal to a broader spectrum of voters.
• Republican Dynamics: Within the Republican Party, Talarico is attracting support from moderates while still retaining strong backing from the MAGA wing.

These factors collectively suggest that Talarico's strategy has effectively appealed to a changing political environment. His campaign now focuses on an 'all-of-the-above' energy approach, which includes balancing environmental concerns with traditional industry support.

Challenges and Future Outlook

While Talarico has made significant gains among younger voters, he still faces challenges in the broader electorate. Paxton continues to dominate among older voters, 55 and above, who make up nearly half of the sample population. His lead here stands at 57 percent to 37 percent.

The race also shows a significant racial divide. Talarico leads among Latino voters 57 percent to 38 percent, and Black voters 87 percent to 10 percent. These demographic trends are important in understanding the overall political landscape of Texas, which has historically leaned Republican but is showing signs of change.

As the November election approaches, both campaigns are investing heavily. Republican-aligned groups have committed $47.2 million in advertising, while Talarico's campaign had $21.5 million in cash on hand at the end of June. Despite these efforts, the race remains highly competitive, with Cook Political Report listing Texas as one of seven toss-up Senate races nationwide.

"It's still Texas," Madrid said earlier this year. "Still a very tough state for the Democrats. But the conditions could not be more favorable for them at the same time."

With these trends in mind, the outcome of this race may have far-reaching implications for both parties and could signal a shift in Texas's political future.