Texas: A Conservative Stronghold at a Crossroads

Trump's Texas Convention: A Last Stand for GOP?

President Donald Trump's Republican National Convention arrives in Dallas this week as the GOP confronts an uncomfortable reality: The longtime conservative stronghold is emerging as one of the biggest battlegrounds of the 2026 midterm elections. This unprecedented move to hold a midterm convention in Texas underscores just how much the political landscape has shifted.

Traditionally, conventions have been held during presidential election years, serving to energize the base and mobilize support for the party's nominee. But with the 2026 midterms looming and polling showing signs of a significant shift, the Republican Party is taking an aggressive approach in hopes of staving off losses.

"This is a five-alarm fire right now, and every Republican, every conservative, every non-nuts commonsense Texan needs to understand the crazies are coming out in force," said Senator Ted Cruz during an interview on the Lt. Dan podcast hosted by Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick.

— Senator Ted Cruz

The Battle for Texas Senate

At the heart of this political upheaval is the race for Texas's U.S. Senate, where Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton finds himself in a tight contest against Democratic state Representative James Talarico. Paxton unseated Senator John Cornyn in the primary, but his controversial past and recent scandals have made him a liability.

While Trump's endorsement provided some support, it hasn't been enough to overcome the erosion of public trust that has plagued Paxton since his 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House. The attorney general has faced allegations of bribery and abuse of public trust, which he has denied.

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a rally on July 13 in Eagle Pass, Texas.

The Cook Political Report has reclassified the race as a pure toss-up, with polls showing a close contest. Talarico's campaign has raised significantly more money than Paxton's, a crucial advantage in a state that includes expensive media markets like Dallas and Houston.

Governor's Race: Abbott's Challenge

In the gubernatorial race, Republican Governor Greg Abbott is still favored over Democratic state Representative Gina Hinojosa. However, recent polling shows a more competitive race than expected. Abbott's leadership has been viewed as relatively uncontroversial by Republicans, but his long tenure and policies are beginning to wear thin with some voters.

Abbott's administration has focused heavily on data center development, an issue that has become central to voter concerns. He recently paused approvals for new proposed data centers while regulators conduct a comprehensive audit. While this move may appeal to some voters, it also puts him at odds with Trump's vocal support for data center development.

Texas governor candidate Gina Hinojosa speaks during a campaign event in Austin, Texas, on February 17.

The Data Center Dilemma

Data centers have emerged as a critical issue in the Texas election, with both parties taking starkly different positions. Abbott's pause on new data center approvals reflects growing public concern about their impact on infrastructure and community resources. His campaign has emphasized that these facilities must pay for their own electricity infrastructure and not disrupt neighborhoods.

However, Democrats like Hinojosa have criticized the governor's approach, calling it a strategic move to protect his reelection chances rather than genuine concern for Texans' wellbeing. The issue has become a key part of her campaign messaging, arguing that these large-scale projects threaten the state's water supply and grid stability.

Democrat Hope and Republican Worry

Democrats have long dreamed of flipping Texas, the largest Republican-leaning state, but have consistently come up short. While Republican margins narrowed throughout the 2010s, the state again moved rightward in 2024, giving Trump a 14-point victory over then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

Yet, this time around, Democrats see real opportunity. A coalition of factors including inflation, economic concerns, and growing dissatisfaction with Trump's leadership has created an environment where Texas could shift. The Republican Party is raising alarms about these possibilities, with strategist Brendan Steinhauser warning that "this year, there are signs that the Democrats are very competitive."

"Given what's going on in the world with the economy, with the war in Iran, and then with the sort of data center backlash happening, I think that this is definitely a competitive year for Democrats," said Steinhauser.

— Brendan Steinhauser, Texas Republican Strategist

The Impact of Trump's Unpopularity

A common denominator in all races in Texas, and nationally, is the unpopularity of Donald Trump. His disapproval rating has been consistently high, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy and various policy issues.

This unpopularity has particularly affected Republican candidates in Texas, where traditional conservative base support is wavering. As Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, notes, "At the end of the day, it will be those Republican voters who will determine whether Paxton or Talarico wins."

How Conservative Is Texas?

Texas has long held a reputation as one of the most reliably Republican states in the country, but things have been shifting. From 2000 to 2020, Republican margins shifted from 21 points to fewer than 6 points at the presidential level. The state shifted back rightward in 2024, backing Trump by 14 points, but Democrats are still hopeful about the prospects of "Blue Texas."

Population booms in cities such as Austin, Dallas and Houston, as well as their suburbs shifting leftward in the Trump era have helped make the state less overwhelmingly conservative. However, Texas also has a large concentration of Hispanic and Latino voters that shifted significantly toward Trump last year.

What Happens Next

With polling showing competitive Senate and gubernatorial races, both parties will be watching closely for signs of whether the Republican National Convention helps energize voters ahead of the November 3 elections. The event is set to take place in Dallas on September 9 and 10.

The Republican Party's hope is that Trump's presence will mobilize its base and generate financial support for candidates. However, the impact may be limited among swing voters and independents, who are crucial to any potential shift in Texas's political landscape.

For Democrats, the opportunity to flip Texas could represent a significant breakthrough in their efforts to gain ground nationally. If Talarico wins this year, it could give Democrats more reason to invest in the state in the future, making it easier for them to recruit quality statewide candidates and raise money from national Democrats.

The outcome of these races will not only determine who controls Texas's Senate seat and governorship but also signal broader trends in American politics. Whether Texas returns to its status as a reliably Republican state or joins other swing states in the 2026 midterms, this election cycle will be remembered for its profound implications for both parties.