The Shotgun Is Out, the Under-Center Is In: NFL Offenses Are Making a Bold Shift

The Shotgun's Golden Era Is Over

When I first started covering the NFL, the shotgun formation was a novelty, a passing concept used sparingly in obvious situations. Fast forward to 2023, and the league had gone completely off the rails—71% of snaps were from the shotgun or pistol. But now, we're seeing a complete reversal.

Week 1 of 2026 was telling. NFL offenses went under center at a rate of 42.5%, the highest since 2012. It's not just about numbers—it's about performance. Teams averaged 24.7 points per game, tying with 2012 for the highest-scoring opening week since the 1970 merger.

"The pendulum swung back, and it's not just a trend. It's a return to fundamentals that's paying off in real-time," I said during my post-game analysis.

What changed? Well, let's take a look at how we got here—and why the shift feels so powerful now.

The Rise and Fall of the Shotgun

It all began in 2007 with the Patriots' historic season. Tom Brady was in the shotgun 40% of the time, well ahead of the league average of 26%. The strategy seemed to work, but it had its limits. The shotgun was great for creating passing opportunities, but it also limited offensive creativity on the ground.

By 2013, that pendulum swung dramatically—offenses were operating from the shotgun 71% of the time. But by 2025, as defenses grew more sophisticated, this dominance had begun to crumble. Scoring dropped off, and efficiency took a hit.

Enter the comeback. Coaches realized that moving back under center allowed them to:

• Implement more complex run concepts
• Use play-action with devastating frequency
• Gain better protection for mobile quarterbacks

The New Power Play: Zone Runs and Play-Action

Teams like the Eagles, Commanders, Ravens, Giants, and Raiders have all embraced this shift. But what makes it work?

The key lies in zone runs—specifically, how they mesh with play-action. In Week 1 alone, teams used play-action on more than 75% of their under-center pass attempts. That's a stark contrast to just 9.5% in the pistol or shotgun.

"The reason under-center play is so effective is because it makes the defense guess twice—once about the run and again about the pass," explains my colleague, who spent hours analyzing the numbers.

This dual threat has allowed offenses to exploit defensive zone coverage, which now accounts for 60%+ of defensive snaps in 2026. The strategy is working because it forces defenders to commit early and often—leaving gaps that are easier to exploit with play-action.

What's Missing: The QB Run Game

While the shift under center brings many benefits, there's a trade-off. Designed quarterback runs have nearly disappeared from the NFL playbook. Teams like the Bills and Chiefs are being more conservative about using their top quarterbacks in these high-risk situations.

This cautious approach is not without reason—quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Kyler Murray have faced injury concerns that made it difficult to justify the risk.

But what's most telling is how this shift has affected offensive efficiency. The designed quarterback run game peaked in 2022, with teams averaging 31 runs per week at 6 yards per attempt. By 2025, those numbers had dropped dramatically—4.3 yards per carry and a success rate of just 48.4%.

The new era is about making smarter decisions, not just going back to old ways. Teams are trading some explosiveness for consistency.

Who's Winning the Shift?

Let's take a closer look at how these teams performed:

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs went under center 43.3% of the time against Denver, their highest rate in a Mahomes start since 2018. Their new running back, Kenneth Walker III, looked like a revelation on the ground, especially when operating from under center—where he averaged 4.5 yards per carry.

Mahomes showed he can still play effectively from under center, though his passing wasn't as sharp in this early game. But if he adjusts and stays with this approach, the combination of a strong run game and explosive play-action could be deadly for the Chiefs.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles leaned heavily into zone concepts under Sean Mannion's leadership, going under center 34% of the time. But their execution was uneven—Hurts had only a few successful drops from under center, and their offensive production flagged after halftime.

This game shows how much work still needs to be done for this strategy to truly take hold in the modern NFL. Still, the Eagles' willingness to embrace it is a sign of things to come.

Washington Commanders

Under coordinator David Blough, the Commanders made a bold commitment to under-center play—but they didn't fully execute it. They were only 26.9% under center in Week 1, far below their expected usage rate.

Their offense struggled with consistency, especially when running from under center. With Jayden Daniels leading the way, this team needs to build on early momentum before the season gets more challenging.

Baltimore Ravens

As expected, the Ravens were one of the most aggressive teams in shifting to under-center play—34% of their snaps came from under center. Lamar Jackson thrived, showing that he can operate effectively when not in the shotgun.

Derrick Henry had a field day running behind this formation, especially on designed runs, and the Ravens' ground game was one of the best in the league in Week 1.

New York Giants

The Giants took the shift to the extreme, going under center 51.5% of the time in their win over Dallas. With a balanced offensive attack and an improved run game, they proved that this approach can work—even when it's not the norm.

Their offensive line, led by veteran experience and new additions, performed well, making them one of the most promising teams to follow as the season progresses.

Las Vegas Raiders

Kirk Cousins looked sharp in his debut under center, going 9-of-14 for 76 yards and a TD. The Raiders' commitment to this approach was evident—under-center snaps accounted for 64.2% of their total offensive actions.

Their strategy is bold, but it's also built on fundamentals. When their young backs improve and their receiving corps steps up, the Raiders could become a force again.

Is This a Trend or a Tectonic Shift?

I believe we're seeing more than just a passing trend. The data supports the idea that this shift is here to stay—and it's driven by smart coaching decisions and evolving defensive strategies.

The league has learned that zone coverage, while difficult to break down, can be exploited with the right play-action game and well-executed zone runs. The return to under-center play isn't just nostalgia—it's a calculated move toward more balanced and efficient offenses.

As we continue through the season, expect to see teams that adopt this strategy early—and succeed—while others struggle to adapt. This is what happens when coaches truly understand the game's nuances and aren't afraid to challenge conventional wisdom.

The future of the NFL is here, and it's under center.