The Tigray Conflict: A Return to War or Just the Latest Chapter?

When Peace Was Supposed to Last

For two years, Tigray had been slowly rebuilding after a brutal civil war that ended in 2022. The region had endured immense suffering—famine, displacement, infrastructure destroyed, and the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives. So when fighting suddenly flared up again this week, it wasn't just shocking; it was deeply unsettling to the people who thought peace was finally within reach.

The headlines have been grim: reports of panic buying, internet blackouts, and a breakdown in digital financial services. In a country where most transactions are now digital, this has created chaos. People can't access their money or even check balances on apps—leaving them vulnerable and uncertain about their future.

At first glance, it might seem like the conflict is just a rehash of the past. But beneath the surface lies a complex web of unresolved political, territorial, and ideological issues that have been festering for years.

"We thought we had moved beyond this," said one Tigrayan resident, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Now, everything feels like it's happening all over again."

The Spark That Lit a Fire

It's not just about who started the latest hostilities. This isn't the first time tensions have flared between Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the political party that has governed the region since the 1970s.

The TPLF, once a major player in Ethiopian politics, has long been seen as powerful beyond its population size—Tigray makes up only about 6% of Ethiopia's people. Its influence waned after Abiy Ahmed became prime minister in 2018, and he dismantled the EPRDF coalition that had kept the TPLF in power for nearly three decades.

Since then, relations have been strained. But the peace deal signed in November 2022, mediated by the African Union under the Pretoria Agreement, was supposed to bring stability. It wasn't meant to be a temporary ceasefire. But it's clear now that many core issues remain unresolved—and they've come back with a vengeance.

Four Core Issues Underlying the Conflict

There are several factors fueling this current outbreak of violence, but four stand out:

• Western Tigray: After the war began, Amhara fighters took control of western Tigray. Many in Amhara believe the area was unfairly included in Tigray's boundaries after the 1991 regime change. This is one of the most sensitive issues, as it involves questions of identity and belonging. Thousands of Tigrayan people have fled to camps within Ethiopia and even to Addis Ababa due to this conflict.
• Disarmament: The government insists that the TPLF has not fully handed over its weapons—especially newer ones. In contrast, the TPLF says it only surrendered what was deemed old or obsolete by the AU. This mismatch is a major source of distrust.
• Government Control: Under the terms of the peace agreement, an interim administration was installed in Tigray by Abiy Ahmed. However, the TPLF has rejected that move and reinstated its own pre-war government structure. This has led to civil servants not being paid and essential services deteriorating further.
• Regional Dynamics: The conflict now spans beyond Tigray's borders into Afar and Amhara regions—indicating a broader instability within Ethiopia's federal system.

The question is whether these disputes are just about control or if they point to something more fundamental: the viability of Ethiopia's current political model.

Who Are the TPLF, Really?

To understand the current conflict, you must understand the TPLF. Founded in the 1970s as a resistance movement against military rule, it played a central role in overthrowing Ethiopia's Marxist government in 1991 and became part of the EPRDF coalition that governed Ethiopia for nearly three decades.

Over time, its dominance raised eyebrows among other ethnic groups. Tigrayans, despite being a minority, held disproportionate influence in national politics. When Abiy came to power, he replaced the EPRDF with his own Prosperity Party, which diluted the TPLF's political grip.

The fallout was swift and severe. By 2020, war had erupted again between the TPLF and federal forces—a conflict that the AU estimated cost around 600,000 lives and brought the region to the brink of famine.

After nearly four years, a fragile peace returned in November 2022. But now, the cracks are reappearing—and faster than anyone expected.

From Alliances to All-Out War

One major development has reshaped the landscape: the formation of the Alliance for Survival—a coalition that includes the TPLF and other anti-government groups like Amhara's Fano militia and the Oromo Liberation Army. While these forces have different agendas, they share a common goal: to oust Abiy Ahmed from power.

That doesn't mean harmony between them. For instance, Fano was once fighting against the TPLF during the last war, but now, they're working together—temporarily at least. It's a risky strategy, one that analysts warn could fracture under pressure if long-term differences surface.

For the TPLF, this new alliance feels like a necessary survival tactic. After years of political isolation, they're reasserting themselves—but not without challenges. If internal divisions within the alliance deepen or other actors take sides, the conflict could spiral even further.

The Government's Side of the Story

From Addis Ababa's perspective, the TPLF is not only responsible for the recent escalation but also part of a broader destabilizing force. They've accused the TPLF of starting the fighting and said that drones were used in attacks on federal positions in Tigray.

This has raised alarms—especially given reports of strikes on schools and hospitals, which are being investigated independently by humanitarian groups. Some officials say those buildings were being used as military bases during the previous war, but there's little clarity on how such usage was confirmed or verified.

Meanwhile, the government is also pushing back against Eritrea's involvement in the conflict—something Asmara denies. Ethiopia, which lost access to ports when Eritrea declared independence in 1993, is eyeing the strategic port of Assab near its border, potentially leading to renewed tensions with Eritrea.

Diplomatic Efforts and the Road Ahead

The African Union (AU) is currently spearheading diplomatic efforts to calm things down. Special envoy Olusegun Obasanjo has been called in to mediate talks between the two sides, while the United Nations and regional body IGAD have also urged an immediate halt to hostilities.

Yet, with trust between Addis Ababa and Tigray virtually gone, these appeals may struggle to hold sway. The situation is especially delicate now that the new alliance brings in a diverse set of grievances and goals. If this coalition can't maintain unity, it could mean even more chaos across Ethiopia's already fragile federal structure.

What Lies Ahead?

The biggest fear? That this conflict spreads beyond Tigray. Already, there are reports of fighting moving into neighboring regions—particularly Amhara and Oromia—where other armed movements are also active. If these groups join forces politically or militarily, it could create a domino effect that destabilizes much of the country.

And then there's Eritrea's role in all this. With its own complex history with Ethiopia, the two nations could be drawn into conflict again, adding another layer to an already turbulent regional dynamic.

In short, what started as a local conflict is quickly becoming a regional crisis—and one that may redefine Ethiopia's political future for years to come.

As I reflect on this unfolding drama, I can't help but wonder: Is this just the latest chapter in Ethiopia's ongoing struggle, or could it be the beginning of something far more profound?