Understanding Speculation's Crucial Role
In recent discussions around America's economic history, speculation is often viewed in a negative light. Particularly when referencing the infamous 1929 crash, it evokes images of greed, excess, and moral failings. Yet, as Andrew Ross Sorkin eloquently argues, speculation is not merely a sin but instead is an integral driving force behind America's growth.
This notion may come as a surprise in the wake of recent speculative manias—from GameStop to the cryptocurrency boom. It can even sound heretical when set against the backdrop of current fears associated with AI investments. However, the reality is that speculation isn't merely a bug in the economic code of the United States; it is central to its very engine.
“Speculation is often caricatured as gambling. But at its core, it is belief plus risk.”
Lessons from the Past
To mitigate the negative impacts of speculation, one must remember the lessons learned from the past. Sorkin's thorough research for his new book, “1929: The Greatest Crash in Wall Street History—And How It Shattered a Nation,” highlights how the leading figures of that era viewed speculation.
- Charles Mitchell: The National City Bank financier believed that democratizing investments was key to national progress.
- John J. Raskob: The architect of the Empire State Building famously remarked that any American could become wealthy by investing just $15 a week in stocks.
While many of their assumptions about leverage and market behaviors were ultimately flawed, their recognition of speculation's importance was clear.
Speculation Beyond Financial Markets
Understanding speculation as merely stock market gambling is a gross simplification. It extends far beyond that to encompass vast realms such as:
- Building infrastructures, like skyscrapers
- Funding groundbreaking research and development
- Backing innovative startups
- Entrepreneurial ventures
Every innovation we witness today, from electric vehicles to Covid vaccines, began with someone betting on an uncertain outcome. This kind of risky investment translates into tangible advancements in technology and society.
Responsible Speculation: A Balancing Act
Of course, speculation should not be romanticized. There exists a line where it can become recklessness, especially when individuals leverage borrowed funds in opaque environments, ultimately leading to disasters. The aftermath of the 1929 crash forced us not to abandon speculation but to regulate it. The establishment of bodies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation exemplifies steps taken to make speculation less toxic.
Yet it is worth noting: the lessons from the Great Depression were not “don't speculate” but “speculate responsibly.”
Conclusion: Embrace Speculation with Caution
Sorkin invites us to reconsider not just the role of speculation in economic history but its essential part in driving the future. Responsible speculation is a matter of balancing opportunity and risk. The next time you encounter disruptive investments, pause and remember: behind every burgeoning enterprise lies a wave of speculative belief. It is a dance between risk and reward that can lead to groundbreaking advancements or catastrophic failures.
Source reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/18/business/dealbook/the-risk-that-built-america.html
