The Vanishing Coalition: Why Trump Has Lost the Country

Trump's Diminishing Support

As Ross Douthat astutely points out in his piece titled "Trump Has Lost the Country," the grand narrative of conservatism is unraveling before our eyes. A startling 37% approval rating for Trump suggests not just a simple dip in numbers, but a stark and alarming trend: the coalition that once rallied behind him is all but evaporating.

“The majority of voters believe the country is worse off today than it was a year ago.”

This statistic encapsulates the heart of Douthat's argument: the perception of decline is catastrophic for any party hoping to retain a grip on power. The latest electoral defeats, such as the flipping of a traditionally red State Senate seat to blue, offer a bleak forecast for Republicans heading into the midterms. For those who champion an agenda anchored in traditional values and conservative governance, this is more than a mere setback; it's an existential crisis.

A Coalition Built on False Assumptions

Douthat aptly critiques the Trump administration's habitual neglect of swing voters. The administration often behaves like victory is guaranteed, disregarding the complex electoral fabric of America. The hesitance to embrace a more moderate stance risks alienating millions of voters who are vital for any transformative agenda.

“You ignore this, you're going to ice yourself out of a majority come the midterm,” Douthat warns. This isn't just political rhetoric; it's a call to introspection for conservatives who find themselves in an increasingly unpopular narrative.

The Role of Moderates and the General Public

• Electoral Viability: A conservative agenda heavily reliant on executive powers is inherently fragile without congressional buy-in.
• Cultural Resonance: The challenges posed by deportations and aggressive immigration policies resonate negatively among sectors of the electorate previously supportive of Trump.
• Appeal to the Uncommitted: An appeal that is more inclusive to moderates and independents is essential for longevity in governance.

The Left's Obsession with Popularity

Interestingly, Douthat draws parallels with the left, where President Biden's governance to the left of mainstream America has similarly caused fractures. Many on the left are quick to defend Biden's popularity, yet the reality indicates a different story: drastic shifts in electoral outcomes and dwindling support.

“Throughout the Biden era, I had to listen to liberals tell me that actually Joe Biden was a popular president.”

This insistence overlooks the increasing discontent among the general populace—which leaves us to question whether a similar myopia isn't at work within conservative ranks as well.

Acceptance and Adaptation: A Path Forward

Douthat's central thesis is a sobering reminder that without embracing a broader base—even if that means diluting hardline stances—there is little hope for a durable legacy from Trump's presidency. The fracturing of his coalition is not merely about politics; it's about the very soul of the Republican Party.

To revitalize the conservative agenda, party leaders must be willing to listen to dissenting voices and admit when policies fail to resonate with a growing segment of the population.

A Challenge for True Conservatives

This piece serves as an invitation for all conservatives to engage in serious self-examination. Are we prepared to adapt and reframe our strategies, or will we cling to a decreasingly viable doctrine bound by nostalgia? To remain relevant, the right must find a way to moderate and invite collaboration rather than perpetuate division.

Looking Forward

As we approach the approaching elections, understanding these dynamics may be critical not just for conservative leaders but for all who care about a balanced political discourse. Douthat's insights compel us to confront uncomfortable truths, ultimately leading us toward a more civil and effective political dialogue.

For a deeper dive into Douthat's arguments, tune into his full commentary here.