Three Strikes and You're Out: Xi's Last Chance at the Summit

When Diplomacy Becomes a Delusion

I've watched American foreign policy oscillate between idealism and pragmatism for decades. But the current moment demands something more profound: a hard reckoning with China's trajectory, not merely another round of diplomatic theater. As Xi Jinping prepares to meet President Trump in Washington this week, we are witnessing an inflection point that could reshape global dynamics for years to come.

Expectations Low, Reality High

The summit is already being viewed as a lost opportunity by many in the administration and beyond. Expectations are low not because of poor planning but due to the clear signs that China's leadership has become increasingly erratic and inward-looking. If we were to give this meeting anything approaching meaningful progress, it would be an anomaly—an aberration from the pattern of continued encroachment.

"The Chinese side, in a stable environment, will be able to continue dangerous and unacceptable conduct..." — Gordon G. Chang

The last few months have been telling. From military purges within China's own leadership ranks to the unraveling of Huawei's global influence, we see a country in crisis. This is not the China that once projected strength or even competence; it is a nation grappling with deep structural decay masked behind rhetorical bravado.

The Fall of Generals and the Rise of Instability

It's more than just political maneuvering—it's a full-on collapse of confidence within China's top brass. The expulsion of General Zhang Youxia and another senior military officer signals internal power struggles that could destabilize the entire regime. When even the most loyal elements of the Communist Party turn against their leader, when generals are accused of attempting to seize power, what remains of legitimacy?

This is not a country operating with cohesion or strategic clarity. It's a leadership structure teetering on the edge, one that has lost its grip on both internal stability and external credibility. And yet, despite this chaos at home, China continues to pursue an aggressive stance abroad—something our leaders must no longer tolerate under any guise of dialogue.

The Cost of Patience

For over fifty years, America has attempted to engage China in peaceful negotiation, from Nixon's historic visit to Mao Zedong, through successive administrations. But each gesture of engagement only emboldened a regime that views such diplomacy as a weakness to exploit rather than a tool for cooperation.

We've seen the fruits of this approach in countless ways: intellectual property theft, fentanyl trafficking, predatory trade practices, and now direct support for hostile regimes like Iran. Each of these is a betrayal of basic norms of international conduct, yet we have consistently responded with mild sanctions or vague warnings, never taking decisive action that might force China into compliance.

That approach has failed spectacularly. It has not deterred aggression; it has only encouraged further belligerence. In the case of recent American casualties in Jordan and Kuwait, Chinese satellites were reportedly used to target U.S. forces—an act so brazen it should be treated as an outright declaration of war.

Xi Jinping's Dwindling Authority

This week's summit is not just about bilateral relations—it's about the very authority of a leader whose position is crumbling from within. Xi Jinping has already shown arrogance in his handling of the last round of talks, making veiled threats about the Thucydides Trap and dismissing fair trade practices as irrelevant. His language now reflects more of an imperial worldview than pragmatic statecraft.

And while he may arrive with some tactical advantages—diplomatic protocols, carefully choreographed appearances—the reality is that his personal strength has eroded dramatically. His health questions, economic stagnation, and domestic dissent make him increasingly vulnerable to the whims of his own party and the broader international community.

A New Framework for Engagement

President Trump stands at a crossroads. He can continue down the path of incremental concessions that have led nowhere, or he can finally take control of this relationship in a way that makes clear America's red lines. The time has come to end the charade of 'dialogue' and move toward genuine accountability.

We should demand concrete changes from China—not promises, but action. No more trade truces that expire every few months; instead, permanent measures that ensure fair treatment for American businesses and workers. We must begin implementing policies that safeguard our national security interests while refusing to be dictated to by an increasingly destabilized regime.

The world is watching. America's leadership must now reflect the urgency of this moment, not just in words but in deeds. If the summit does nothing more than reaffirm stalemate, then we have already lost. The real test will come when Trump and Xi sit across from each other at the table—and decide whether diplomacy can survive a new kind of confrontation.

Conclusion: A Final Warning

Xi Jinping's visit to Washington is not a chance for another round of empty gestures or symbolic meetings. It's his last opportunity before America begins enforcing its own interests in earnest. As we stand at this precipice, I believe it's critical that we shift from viewing China as an economic partner to recognizing it as a strategic competitor—and act accordingly. The cost of hesitation is too high.

This is not about hatred or vengeance; it's about preserving the integrity of our alliances and the values upon which America was built. It's time for a new chapter—one where American leadership is firm, decisive, and unafraid to challenge a global power that has long abused its position.