Trump's Approval Rating Plummets Across Battleground States as Midterms Loom

Trump's National Approval Plummets to Historic Low

I've been tracking political trends for years, but what I'm seeing now is particularly concerning—President Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped dramatically since his second inauguration. At just 34 percent approval and 60 percent disapproval, he sits at a net approval of minus 26 nationally. That's a sharp contrast from when he returned to office in January 2025.

"The political environment for Trump is now more challenging than it was before his first midterm election," said a senior analyst from Civiqs, the polling firm behind the data used in this report.

This decline isn't just a national phenomenon—it's happening across key battleground states. Even in traditionally Republican strongholds, support has evaporated, and in some places, Trump is now significantly underwater.

Deep Red States Show Signs of Fraying Support

Wyoming leads the pack with a net approval of +15, but even that figure represents a significant drop from +47 when Trump began his second term. West Virginia and North Dakota are showing similar trends, having slipped from +35 and +34 respectively to +13 and +10.

This suggests that the Republican base may not be as solid as it once was. In states like Wyoming, which were heavily supportive in 2024, Trump's approval has eroded by more than one-third of its previous high. The same pattern holds for other red states—support is there, but it's weakening rapidly.

Every Major Swing State Is Underwater

When you look at the most politically significant battlegrounds, the results are even more alarming. Trump's net approval in key swing states like Florida (-13), Georgia (-25), and Nevada (-25) is now deeply negative.

This is not just a matter of numbers—it's a fundamental shift in how voters perceive his leadership. In 2024, these states were largely solid Trump territories, but now they're trending toward the opposition side. It's not just that he's losing ground; he's losing it fast.

• Florida: +9 to -13 (down 22 points)
• Ohio: +8 to -19 (down 27 points)
• Nevada: 0 to -25 (down 25 points)
• North Carolina: 0 to -18 (down 18 points)

These figures point to a clear pattern: Trump's support is being eroded not just in blue states, but also among Republican voters who initially gave him strong backing.

Demographic Breakdown Highlights Deep Divisions

The demographic breakdown further explains this trend. Younger voters—those aged 18 to 34—disapprove of Trump by a margin of 72 percent to 21 percent. Among those aged 35 to 49, the disapproval rate is 64 percent versus 27 percent approval.

Independents remain the most critical group. Their net approval rating of -38 (27 percent approve, 65 percent disapprove) indicates that Trump has lost significant ground among those who don't identify with either major party.

Women, too, are showing strong opposition. A 65-to-29 margin against Trump demonstrates that gender is a factor in voter perception. Even men aren't fully behind him—54 percent disapprove, and only 39 percent approve.

Educational background also plays a role. Among postgraduates, Trump's approval sits at just 23 percent while 72 percent disapprove. Even among non-college graduates, support is below the disapproval threshold at 37 percent approval.

States Where Approval Has Fallen Most Dramatically

Every state in this tracker now has a lower net approval rating than when Trump took office. The biggest drops have occurred in Republican-leaning states like Kentucky and Ohio, where support has plummeted by more than 30 points since January.

• Kentucky: +23 to -11 (down 34 points)
• Oklahoma: +31 to +2 (down 29 points)
• Wyoming: +47 to +15 (down 32 points)
• Ohio: +8 to -19 (down 27 points)
• Texas: +6 to -20 (down 26 points)

This pattern suggests that Trump's popularity isn't just waning—it's collapsing in some of the states he'll need to win to retain power. The Republican base may be wavering more than previously thought.

Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative

In Democratic strongholds, Trump's approval ratings are still negative but even worse than his national average. Vermont (-53), Maryland (-54), and Massachusetts (-49) show the deepest levels of opposition.

These states were already hostile to Trump in 2024, and their numbers have only worsened. Even New York and Oregon, both at -41, are deeply unsupportive of his policies and leadership.

The Political Implications for Midterms

This polling data signals a critical moment for the political landscape. As we enter Labor Day—a traditional kickoff to the fall campaign season—the numbers suggest that Trump is now in a significantly weaker position than he was when he returned to office.

His approval rating is now below where it stood before his first midterm election in 2018. At that time, Trump had a net approval of minus 10. Today, the figure stands at minus 26.

While approval ratings don't directly predict electoral outcomes, they do influence voter sentiment in competitive races. This is especially true in the current environment where the political stakes are high and voter engagement is intense.

White House Defense: A Focus on Achievements

The White House has responded to these polling figures by emphasizing what it sees as Trump's accomplishments, including job growth, inflation control, and housing affordability. Spokesman Davis Ingle argued that “the ultimate poll was November 5th, 2024,” pointing to the election as validation of his mandate.

"No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump," Ingle stated, highlighting job creation and economic progress.

The administration is maintaining that Trump's agenda is still taking effect, despite current polling showing otherwise. This approach underscores a strategic effort to frame the debate around policy outcomes rather than popularity ratings.

What This Means for the Midterms

As we approach Election Day, this data suggests that Republicans may be in for a rough campaign season. Trump's approval rating is not just low—it's historically weak, and it's trending downward in key states. The implications are clear: Democrats may see opportunities to gain ground, especially in battleground states where support has evaporated.

For voters, this means that the political environment will be shaped by a leader who is increasingly unpopular—not just in some parts of the country, but across the board. For politicians and strategists, it's a reminder that public sentiment can shift quickly, especially when economic concerns and policy failures become visible to voters.

The next few weeks will be crucial. If Trump's approval doesn't improve—and given the data so far, it seems unlikely—his chances of retaining power could be significantly diminished.