Trump's Endorsement Power Is Tested in New Hampshire

Trump's Endorsement Record: A Mixed Bag

As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the power of a presidential endorsement remains one of the most potent tools available to Republican leaders. But when it comes to Donald Trump, his influence is both a blessing and a curse for his chosen candidates.

In New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, former businessman Anthony DiLorenzo claimed victory in a tightly contested Republican primary against former vice chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party, Hollie Noveletsky. DiLorenzo received 51.5 percent of the vote to Noveletsky's 26.8 percent, according to The Associated Press.

"It is my Great Honor to endorse America First Patriot, Anthony DiLorenzo, who is running to represent the fantastic people of New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District!" Trump wrote on Truth Social in July.

Trump has endorsed hundreds of candidates across the country this year, with Ballotpedia reporting a 96 percent success rate in primaries. But the numbers tell only part of the story. While DiLorenzo's win may seem like another boost to Trump's influence, it also highlights the unpredictable nature of modern Republican politics.

When Endorsements Fail

This isn't the first time Trump-backed candidates have lost primaries. In Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, Representative Andy Ogles lost to Charlie Hatcher, a candidate backed by Governor Bill Lee. Similarly, in Florida's 19th District, Catalina Lauf lost her primary to Jim Schwartzel after Trump's endorsement failed to secure her victory.

Even in Michigan, the Trump-backed Amir Hassan lost to Thomas J. Smith—a Republican who suspended his campaign and endorsed another candidate before the election.

These defeats raise questions about how much influence a single political figure can truly wield when grassroots support is divided. Yet it's also worth noting that in all these cases, the candidates were facing opponents who were either well-funded or politically connected.

The pattern suggests that while Trump's endorsement still carries weight with Republican voters, his influence may be waning among the more conservative wing of the party—especially as the 2026 election cycle progresses and national polls show a significant decline in his approval ratings.

Trump's Declining Approval Ratings

Recent polling from YouGov and The Economist reveals Trump's overall net approval rating sits at -24 points, with only 36 percent approving of his leadership compared to 60 percent disapproving. However, among Republicans, he still enjoys strong support—net approval of +62 points, with 80 percent supporting him and just 18 percent opposing.

This stark contrast between Trump's approval among Republicans versus the general public indicates a deep divide within the party. For Trump, these numbers are both a reflection of his continued influence and a warning sign that he may not be able to rely on his endorsement alone to win races in competitive districts.

The New Hampshire District: A Crucial Test

Though DiLorenzo has won the Republican primary, the path forward remains uncertain. The 1st Congressional District of New Hampshire is a swing district, with Democrats holding a strong edge according to prediction markets—Kalshi gives Democrats an 88 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket puts their odds at 89 percent.

While Democrats typically win large margins in places like Portsmouth and Dover, the district also includes Manchester, which leans Democratic but not overwhelmingly. Democrats do well in tourist areas near the White Mountains, while Republicans perform better in suburban areas outside Manchester and towns in the Lakes Region—keeping the seat competitive in recent elections.

Chris Pappas, the current Democratic representative, has held the seat since 2019. In 2024, he won by a margin of 8 points, and in 2022, he defeated Karoline Leavitt—later White House press secretary—by about 8 points.

Forecasters consider this race “Likely Democrat,” according to the Cook Political Report. Sabato's Crystal Ball rates it as “Leans Democratic.” These assessments are based on the demographic trends and historical voting patterns in New Hampshire, but they don't account for potential shifts brought about by national political winds.

What This Means for Republicans

For Republicans hoping to flip this district, DiLorenzo represents a chance—but it's not guaranteed. He faces an uphill battle against the current Democratic representative and the national political environment that increasingly favors Democrats.

But his victory does signal something important: the Republican Party is still willing to back Trump's choices—even if those choices occasionally fail in the general election. For now, DiLorenzo has proven himself a viable contender for the Republican ticket, and he may be a key player in the larger battle for control of Congress.

The stakes couldn't be higher for both sides as this election cycle unfolds. As more races are decided, we'll learn whether Trump's endorsement power is fading or if it still holds enough sway to influence outcomes across the country.