Trump's Gas Price Claim: A Closer Look at the Numbers

Was Gas Higher Under Biden?

President Donald Trump has claimed that gas prices were significantly higher during Joe Biden's administration, but a closer look at the data tells a different story. While both presidents began their terms with relatively low fuel costs, the global economic shocks of 2022 and 2026 created divergent trajectories in pricing.

When Biden took office in January 2021, gas prices were averaging around $2.38 per gallon. By contrast, Trump's first term began at a higher average of $3.10 per gallon—though he had promised to reduce this to below $2 during his presidency.

Biden's administration saw fuel prices rise sharply in response to the Russia-Ukraine war in early 2022. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported prices surging past $5 by mid-year before easing to about $3 by year-end, a pattern that persisted through Biden's term.

Trump's second term initially saw gas prices fall below $2.80, but the launch of the Iran war in February 2026 caused a steep reversal. Prices climbed to nearly $4.50 per gallon—just 50 cents shy of Biden's peak during the 2022 energy crisis.

"This underscores the role of market expectations in setting prices," said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group. "In 2022, traders were pessimistic about the size and duration of an oil disruption; this year, they have been optimistic. In both cases, those expectations were incorrect."

By most metrics, gas prices under Biden remained slightly higher—averaging $3.45 compared to $3.39 during Trump's second term. But the gap has narrowed significantly since the Iran conflict began, falling by more than 30 cents.

'Almost All Other Prices'? The Reality of Inflation

Trump's assertion that "almost all other prices" were higher under Biden is a broader claim, one that doesn't hold up under scrutiny. While inflation did peak at 9.1% under Biden in mid-2022—significantly higher than Trump's second-term peak of 4.2%—this does not mean every product category was more expensive.

Price-tracking websites like BidentoTrump.com have analyzed a range of consumer goods and found that while some items—like bacon, bread, and butter—were cheaper under Trump, others such as beef, coffee, and dairy saw increased costs during his current term.

The reality is nuanced. Some staples experienced price increases, while others fell due to fluctuations in supply chains, regional production shifts, and market dynamics. While the average inflation rate may favor Trump, it doesn't tell the full story about the cost of living.

What This Means for Political Narratives

The political implications of these gas price narratives are significant, especially with midterm elections approaching. For Trump, the narrative that fuel prices were higher under Biden is part of a broader strategy to reframe economic challenges in terms of political responsibility. Yet the data suggest that while there were periods of elevated prices, the actual trends show a more complex picture.

The Iran war has created new volatility, which has temporarily shifted some of the earlier price gaps between administrations. But it also highlights the global interconnectedness of energy markets and how geopolitical events can impact fuel pricing in ways that transcend domestic politics.

For consumers and policymakers alike, this is a reminder that while political narratives matter, the economic realities are shaped by forces beyond any single administration's control. The real question may not be who had higher prices, but how we navigate and respond to global energy shifts in the years ahead.