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Venezuela: Trump's Uncalculated Risks Could Spell Disaster

January 14, 2026
  • #Venezuela
  • #USForeignPolicy
  • #TrumpAdministration
  • #DemocracyInVenezuela
  • #PoliticalStrategy
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Venezuela: Trump's Uncalculated Risks Could Spell Disaster

The Current Venezuelan Quagmire

As tensions rise in Venezuela, President Trump's approach raises more questions than answers. Allowing the remnants of Nicolás Maduro's oppressive regime to hold onto power—albeit temporarily—isn't just a mistake; it could be cataclysmic for both Venezuelans and U.S. interests in the region.

“Only time will tell,” Trump stated in a recent interview, encapsulating an alarming sense of uncertainty.

A Historical Perspective

To understand the present situation, we must look back at past U.S. foreign policy blunders. The failed Bay of Pigs invasion serves as a stark reminder that half-measures don't yield success. President Kennedy's scaled-back operations in Cuba taught us that insufficient preparation leads to disaster. Today, the same holds true—half-hearted attempts at regime change in Venezuela are likely to falter.

Trump's Domestic Political Landscape

While Trump's administration seems enamored with taking the reins in Venezuela, the consequences of such overreach could be devastating. Is the objective truly about liberating a nation, or is it merely a strategic maneuver for domestic headlines? We must question whether Trump's promises echo genuine concern or just political theater for an American audience fatigued by foreign entanglements.

The Role of the Opposition

The disjointed Venezuelan opposition, led by figures like María Corina Machado, carries the hopes of millions. Regrettably, Trump's dismissive comments about them send a troubling message: that even the most democratic aspirations can be overshadowed by a willingness to negotiate with authoritarian remnants.

The Stakes of Complacency

Every extra day that Maduro's loyalists remain entrenched strengthens their position and weakens the resolve of the opposition. The narratives emerging from Caracas indicate a burgeoning repression meant to stifle dissent and maintain control.

  • Political prisoners remain a chilling reality in Venezuela.
  • Threats from armed groups serve to intimidate civilian populations.

Strategic Mistakes and Regime Survival

President Trump appears to have miscalculated his position. Instead of utilizing coercive military power and economic sanctions to push for a swift transition of power, his government seems to be inadvertently bolstering the very regime it aims to dismantle.

A Call to Action

History warns us that inaction leads to stagnation. Now is the time to re-engage the opposition and support their aspirations for a genuine democracy. Trump's advisers ought to cease backing the remnants of this regime and shift focus towards empowering leaders like Machado who represent the will of the Venezuelan people.

The Path Forward

If the Trump administration is serious about a unified, democratic Venezuela, it must take decisive action. This involves creating a clear ultimatum for Maduro's regime: either negotiate a transition or face the consequences. The power of the U.S. should not be wielded lightly, but it should be wielded decisively—no longer an ally of complacency.

“The long game of U.S. interests in Venezuela shouldn't only be about keeping things steady, but about instigating change.”

Regime change, when carried out not with wishful thinking but with a clear strategy, could turn the tide in Venezuela. Time is of the essence, and every passing moment adds weight to the urgencies on both sides of the equation.

Source reference: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/13/opinion/trump-premature-victory-venezuela.html

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