Week 1 NFL Predictions: Upsets, Sleepers, and Stat Lines

Week 1 NFL Predictions: What to Expect

The 2026 NFL season is officially underway, with the Seahawks and 49ers already crowned as winners in Week 1. But what happens in the remaining 14 games? We've gathered predictions from our NFL experts, ranging from upset picks to fantasy sleepers and projected stat lines.

Upset Picks

Let's start with some bold predictions for potential upsets this week.

New York Jets +1.5 at Tennessee Titans: The Jets have bolstered their pass rush with new additions, including No. 2 pick David Bailey, while the Titans' offensive line ranked 26th in Mike Clay's positional group rankings. This pressure could force Cam Ward into risky plays that could lead to turnovers.

The Jets' defensive improvements are notable, especially when facing a Tennessee offense struggling with pass protection. With Will McDonald IV already making an impact, adding Bailey should give the defense a significant edge in Week 1.

Denver Broncos +2.5 at Kansas City Chiefs: The Broncos' defense is poised to neutralize an aging and injury-ravaged Chiefs offense. Patrick Mahomes is returning from major knee surgery, and Kansas City's passing game was already declining before his injury. Denver should be able to make Mahomes uncomfortable, turning this into a tight game between AFC West rivals.

These predictions are based on the teams' current strengths and recent trends. It's important to remember that football is unpredictable, and upsets can happen at any time.

Projected Stat Lines

Analytics writer Seth Walder offers projections for three key players who could make a significant impact in Week 1.

Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions): 2.0 sacks, 7 pressures, 25% pass rush win rate

Hutchinson is already being projected as one of the top pass rushers this season, and he's set up for a strong start against a Saints defense that will likely be behind early in the game. His matchups against left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. and right tackle Taliese Fuaga, both below average in pass block win rate last season, should provide plenty of opportunities.

Adonai Mitchell (New York Jets): 5 receptions, 84 receiving yards, 1 touchdown

Mitchell's ability to get open has been recognized by ESPN's open score metric. With the Titans' new cornerbacks, Alontae Taylor and Cor'Dale Flott, both below average in cornerback positioning metrics, Mitchell could be a consistent target for Jets quarterback Zach Wilson.

Jordyn Brooks (Miami Dolphins): 14 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 45% run stop win rate

Brooks is projected to dominate the run game in his rookie season. With the Raiders' offense being run-heavy under coach Klint Kubiak and their quarterback Kirk Cousins being 38 years old, Brooks will be tasked with stopping the run. His ability to convert runs into tackles is expected to be crucial.

Fantasy Sleepers

Fantasy football writers have identified several sleepers who could make a difference in Week 1.

Jalen Coker (Carolina Panthers): With 73% of the snaps and a 17.8% target share in the final games of the season, Coker has shown he can be a reliable option. In his playoff performance against the Rams, he finished with nine receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown. Against a weak Bears defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season, Coker could be a significant contributor.

Coker is projected for the second-most targets on the Panthers behind Tetairoa McMillan, making him a strong candidate for high fantasy points in Week 1.

Malik Willis (Miami Dolphins): Despite having one of the league's weaker supporting casts, Willis is expected to have a strong rushing game. Since 2016, quarterbacks who started at least 16 games and averaged at least five rushing attempts per game combined to average 21.2 fantasy points per game. Willis should easily surpass that number of attempts in Week 1, keeping him fantasy relevant.

With the Raiders allowing 16.0 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks last season, Willis could be a solid pick for fantasy managers looking for a dual-threat quarterback option.

Michael Mayer (Las Vegas Raiders): With Brock Bowers missing Week 1 after undergoing a meniscus trim, Mayer is expected to see an increased role. In four games without Bowers last season, Mayer averaged 6.0 targets and 10.9 fantasy points per game. With Kirk Cousins leaning on tight ends throughout his career and Miami allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the position last season, Mayer could be a valuable asset.

With Mayer likely to see more targets in Bowers' absence, he's a prime candidate for fantasy managers looking to build their roster around the tight end position.

Touchdown Scorers

We're also taking a look at players who are expected to find the end zone this week.

Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys): As a priority red zone target for Dak Prescott, Ferguson saw 23 red zone targets last season, with seven of his eight touchdown grabs coming on throws inside the 20-yard line. Against the Giants' defense in Week 1, he could be a key part of the offense's red zone strategy.

Ferguson's role in the Cowboys' offense is crucial, especially when it comes to scoring touchdowns in tight situations.

D'Andre Swift (Chicago Bears): In coach Ben Johnson's zone run game, Swift should see touches in scoring position. Last season, he had nine rushing touchdowns and 10 carries inside the 5-yard line. Against a Panthers defense that allowed 19 rushing scores in 2025 (third most in the NFL), Swift will have opportunities to score.

Swift's ability to create explosive plays as a receiver in the screen game could also lead to touchdowns.

DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles): After A.J. Brown was traded to the Patriots, Smith elevated to the No. 1 role in Philly. With increased volume and new offensive coordinator Sean Mannion's West Coast passing concepts, Smith is expected to find the end zone. His 12 touchdown receptions over the past two seasons make him a strong candidate for Week 1.

Smith's performance in the absence of Brown should be one to watch, especially with his proven track record of scoring touchdowns.

Wild-Card Predictions

Finally, let's look at some wild-card predictions from our experts.

The Jets will snag a pick: After being the first team in NFL history to fail to secure an interception over a full season, the Jets should finally get their interception in Week 1 against Cam Ward. With Tennessee's offense undergoing changes and the Jets' pass rush expected to be effective, this could be the week for a big turnover.

This prediction is based on the assumption that the Jets will finally get some good fortune with their defensive play, especially when facing a new offensive coordinator and primary receivers.

The Dolphins will win: With Malik Willis as one of the league's preeminent dual-threat quarterbacks, new Dolphins offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik can deploy surprising wrinkles that the Raiders' defensive staff won't have film on. The absence of Bowers is also significant, as the Raiders aren't loaded with impressive pass catchers behind him.

This prediction highlights how unpredictable Week 1 can be and how even underdogs can have a strong performance if they execute well.

A kickoff will be returned for a touchdown: The kickoff rules changed last season, and it had a great effect with more enjoyable returns. Now that special teams coordinators have spent an entire offseason studying the dynamic kickoff, we might see more designed returns (reverses, blocking schemes, etc.) in an effort to steal some points.

This prediction is based on the new rules and how they've influenced play in recent seasons.

A team will attempt a Hail Mary, it will fall incomplete, and the game will be ruled over. But then upon review, one second will be put back on the clock, a second Hail Mary will be attempted, this one will be completed, and the winner of the game will switch: While this sounds improbable, it's based on past events in college football where such situations have occurred.

This prediction is more of a humorous take on how unpredictable the NFL can be, especially in the early stages of a season when teams are still adjusting to new strategies and formations.

These predictions offer a comprehensive view of what might unfold in Week 1. While some are more likely than others, the beauty of football lies in its unpredictability. Whether it's an upset victory, a surprise touchdown scorer, or a fantasy sleeper making waves, this season promises to deliver excitement and intrigue for fans and analysts alike.