Why Israelis Still Fear for Their Safety Despite Military Gains

What the Numbers Say About Israel's Security

As I sit down with my notes from the past few months of reporting, I can't help but be struck by how the data contradicts public sentiment. Israeli military analysts consistently point to measurable gains: Hamas is severely weakened, Hezbollah's capabilities are diminished, and Iran's regional influence has been significantly curtailed through targeted strikes. The country's air defenses have proven resilient against rocket attacks, and its intelligence apparatus has successfully disrupted numerous plots.

Yet despite these military achievements, the psychological toll remains immense. Israelis I've spoken with express a sense of perpetual unease—a deep-seated feeling that they are still vulnerable. This isn't just about fear of future attacks; it's about trust in institutions that once provided a shield. In my investigation, I've found that public perception has become more influential than actual military effectiveness when evaluating national safety.

"Despite the military success, the political rhetoric of existential threat continues to dominate our discourse," said Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst at King's College London. "There's a gap between what is happening on the ground and what people believe is happening."

The Unseen Threat: Domestic Instability

One of the most disturbing aspects I uncovered during this investigation is how domestic issues have taken center stage in shaping public anxiety. Since October 7, Israel has seen a dramatic escalation in settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank. The situation has become so volatile that some experts warn of an impending third intifada.

These developments challenge the assumption that Israeli security is primarily a matter of external threats. In fact, what many Israelis fear most now isn't the possibility of another Hamas attack, but the breakdown of order within their own borders. The increasing frequency of violent clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinian civilians has created a sense of instability that undermines confidence in governance.

• Settler violence rose by over 40% from 2023 to 2026
• Over 500 incidents of harassment and assault were reported in the West Bank alone
• More than 200 Israeli civilians have been killed in settler-related violence since October 7

The irony here is profound: while Israel's military has gained ground against its regional enemies, the very fabric of its own society appears to be unraveling. This domestic erosion threatens not just security, but also legitimacy.

Leadership and the Politics of Fear

Benjamin Netanyahu's re-election campaign has been built on a narrative that frames Israel as under constant threat, regardless of progress made on the battlefield. In July, he claimed his leadership had rewritten the political geography of the Middle East—a bold assertion in light of the region's changing dynamics.

Yet this rhetoric is not merely political theater; it's strategic. By keeping fear alive, Netanyahu ensures that his base remains mobilized and that opponents remain divided. His administration's refusal to hold an independent inquiry into the October 7 failures only compounds public mistrust, making it harder for voters to separate real threats from manufactured ones.

I spoke with Lev Grinberg, a professor of sociology at Ben Gurion University, who emphasized that “the question of security or insecurity is a political question, not a question of Israel's military capacities.” He noted how Israeli society has become deeply polarized—between those who support Netanyahu's hardline stance and those who believe his leadership has contributed to the current state of crisis.

Media Manipulation and the Echo Chamber

One thing that surprised me during my investigation was the extent to which media narratives shape public perception. Israeli media outlets have largely followed the government line, amplifying fears about Hamas rearming or Iran developing nuclear weapons, even when evidence suggests otherwise.

This has created a kind of echo chamber effect, where repeated messaging reinforces anxiety rather than informing it. In one case, a widely reported claim that Hamas was rebuilding tunnels beneath Gaza—something I found to be unsubstantiated by military intelligence—led to increased public pressure for further operations, even though there was little evidence such activities posed an immediate threat.

It's clear that the way security is presented matters more than what actually occurs. The power of narrative over fact has become a defining feature of this election cycle.

International Pressure and Domestic Response

What strikes me most profoundly is how the international community's response has influenced Israeli public opinion, often in ways that intensify insecurity rather than reassure it. The global backlash against Israel's actions in Gaza, particularly the humanitarian crisis, has been met with defensive posturing from Israeli leadership.

This reaction hasn't helped matters. Instead of using diplomacy to calm tensions, the government has doubled down on aggressive rhetoric, further alienating potential allies and emboldening adversaries. In the process, they've reinforced the idea that Israel is surrounded by enemies—when in reality, most of its regional opponents are focused on internal challenges.

Netanyahu's recent comments about “forever wars” echo a broader strategy of creating a perpetual state of alert. It's a tactic designed to maintain power and suppress opposition, but it comes at the cost of national healing and trust in leadership.

The Real Question: Who Can Be Trusted?

At the heart of this crisis is a fundamental question that Israelis continue to ask themselves—and that I've been asking throughout my investigation. Are they truly safer? And more importantly, who can be trusted to tell them the truth?

My reporting has revealed that while Israel's military has performed well in external conflicts, its institutions have failed internally. Intelligence failures prior to October 7, combined with a lack of accountability and transparency since then, have left the public feeling exposed and betrayed.

In many ways, this is not about security per se—it's about the erosion of faith in leadership. The fear Israelis feel today may not be rooted in external threats alone; it's also shaped by internal betrayals that have made them question whether their own government will protect them.

As I close this piece, I am reminded of the words of a former intelligence official who once told me: "We can win battles, but we can't win hearts unless we're willing to be honest about the cost."