With El Mencho's Death, What's Next for the Jalisco Cartel?

The Fall of El Mencho: A Watershed Moment

The killing of one of the world's most notorious drug lords, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes—better known as El Mencho—last Sunday sent shockwaves through Mexico. This pivotal moment raises pressing questions regarding the future of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), a vast criminal empire that has become synonymous with brutality and vast drug trafficking.

El Mencho's death at the hands of Mexican security forces sheds light on the shifting tides of power within Mexico's narcotics trade. As one of the most powerful and feared drug lords, he led the CJNG to ascendancy, dominating drug routes from Mexico to the United States and beyond.

Immediate Aftermath: A Nation on Edge

In the immediate aftermath of his death, Guadalajara—the capital of Jalisco state—descended into chaos. Gunmen retaliated, igniting violence that spread to cities and beach resorts, leading to widespread panic among civilians and law enforcement alike. Blockades on highways and attacks on stores bespeak the desperate measures the cartel is willing to take to maintain control. The question remains, however: can the CJNG quickly regroup, or will it fracture under internal pressures?

An Empire at Risk: The Succession Question

The future of the cartel may hinge on how quickly Oseguera's lieutenants can appoint a successor and close ranks to prevent any fragmentation that could arise from infighting among factions. Historically, many cartels in Mexico are dynastic in nature, with family members often taking the reins. However, El Mencho's family is currently embroiled in legal troubles; his son was extradited to the U.S. in 2020, and several brothers have also been arrested, complicating any potential succession.

Rosalinda González Valencia—Oseguera's widow and a significant financial operator for the cartel—might try to assert her dominance, but as experts point out, the deeply entrenched machismo culture in Mexico poses severe hurdles for women in leadership roles within drug organizations.

The Broader Implications: Violence and Governance

While the U.S. government may see this as an opportunity to weaken a major cartel and reduce drug flow into the country, the potential increase in violence could bring dire consequences for Mexican society. A succession crisis within the CJNG could spiral into brutal turf wars, plunging already violent states into deeper chaos.

“When a power vacuum emerges, the bloodiest fights will emerge,” said one analyst.

Regional Context: The Sinaloa Cartel

Compounding this situation is the fact that the Mexican government is simultaneously waging a losing battle against the Sinaloa Cartel—the CJNG's bitter rival. Eduardo Guerrero, a former security official, suggests that the CJNG has gained from the Mexican government's focus on the Sinaloa group, expanding its reach while the latter has been embroiled in infighting.

The Mexican government's strategy under former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as "hugs, not bullets," failed to curb cartel violence but instead led to an increase in territorial control for the Jalisco Cartel. As President Claudia Sheinbaum confronts a persistent drug violence problem, her strategies will be crucial in determining the future of both the CJNG and the Sinaloa Cartel.

International Factors: U.S. Involvement and the War on Drugs

The U.S. has long been invested in Mexico's drug crisis, and analysts are noting that American officials had begun gathering intelligence linking the CJNG to the emerging fentanyl trade. This could spell trouble as the cartel expands into new territories and illicit markets. The failure to curb the trade, despite numerous arrests and cartel dismantling campaigns, points to an enduring crisis that shows no signs of abating.

Conclusion: A Future Full of Questions

While the death of El Mencho marks a significant moment in the battle against drug trafficking in Mexico, it is clear that the removal of one figurehead will not dismantle an organization deeply rooted in violence and fear. As we look ahead, my focus will remain on how the CJNG will navigate this period of uncertainty and what this means for the broader landscape of drug trafficking in Mexico.