Trump's New Doctrine: Europe Must Forge Its Own Path

A Shifting Landscape

The Trump administration's recent National Security Strategy paints Europe as facing impending "civilisational erasure." This provocative framing suggests that Europe must brace for an epoch marked by U.S. indifference and financial coercion. As the U.S. recedes behind its own walls, Europe must adapt to a rapidly evolving geopolitical reality.

"Instability or even chaos alone is not enough … to judge a deprioritisation effort a failure." — Elbridge Colby

Signals of Withdrawal

This new security doctrine, which shifts responsibilities to European nations, is a culmination of signals that have been clear for years. From JD Vance's jarring Munich speech to debates about military spending, Europe has been grappling with the ramifications of a potentially disengaged America.

The Myth of Dependence

For far too long, European nations have relied on U.S. military might as a security blanket. But with recent calls for U.S. troop withdrawals, it becomes critical for Europe to re-evaluate its defense strategies. If the U.S. is pivoting towards a hemispheric defense strategy that sidelines Europe, what are the consequences for European unity and autonomy?

Economic Coercion as a Tool

As America steps back militarily, it is already deploying other forms of coercion—diplomatically and economically. The potential for secondary sanctions and export controls looms large. European leaders must recognize that the U.S. will increasingly use financial instruments to fortify its positions. This power dynamics raises critical questions about how the EU can wield its own economic muscle without capitulating to U.S. demands.

Confronting Coercion

Europe must learn from the failures of the past. The need for a unified stance against U.S. pressure is more urgent than ever. The calamity surrounding Ursula von der Leyen's lopsided trade deal serves as a stark reminder. If European leaders don't begin to assert their agency, they risk becoming collateral damage in a confrontation that sidelines their interests.

• Recognize economic co-dependence and assert countermeasures.
• Invest strategically in defense to deter hostile maneuvers.
• Enhance internal solidarity to prevent U.S. tactics from dividing Europe.

Final Thoughts

Moving beyond a defensive crouch requires Europe to embrace its strategic agency, firmly establish lines in the sand, and ready itself to respond to coercive actions from both the U.S. and its rivals. Europe's future hinges not solely on external alliances but on its ability to foster resilience and unity from within.